NoVA Real Estate Trends for September: Insights from The Minken Housing Index

I’m excited to share the first Virginia Edition of The Minken Housing Index, which tracks local real estate trends month by month for single, detached homes. For years, I’ve been producing this index in Northern New Jersey, where it became a trusted snapshot of how prices and sales were moving in different towns. Since relocating to Northern Virginia earlier this year, I’ve expanded the index here to highlight what’s happening across our local communities, from Vienna and McLean to Fairfax, Alexandria, and beyond. My goal is to make the market easier to understand, whether you’re a current homeowner, a future buyer, or just curious about how our neighborhoods are evolving.

A deep dive into the September numbers for the Minken Housing Index – Virginia Edition reveals a pretty fascinating story. On one hand, the luxury markets are still leading the way. McLean’s average sales price came in just over $3.1 million, up about 9% from last year. At the same time, the number of homes that sold in McLean dipped by 16%, showing how higher prices and limited inventory can slow down real estate activity, even in a strong market. Vienna also stood out, with a 22% jump in average sales price to about $1.65 million, even though sales there dipped slightly as well.

Meanwhile, places like Fairfax and Annandale are holding steady. Fairfax is basically flat on price, but sales dropped by about 24%, showing that some mid-market buyers may be pulling back. What really caught my eye, though, was Alexandria and Oakton. Both had more homes sold in 2025 during the month of September compared to last year, with Alexandria up nearly 20% and Oakton over 40%. Their price growth was more modest, which may be one reason buyers are still very active there.

So, what does this all mean? Right now, the Northern Virginia real estate market feels like it’s running on two tracks. As reflected in the data, the higher-end towns comprising the Minken Housing Index - Virginia Edition, like McLean and Vienna, keep pushing higher in sales price but seeing fewer sales. In contrast, the more mid-range markets, like Alexandria and Oakton, are attracting a lot of buyer interest. It’s a reminder that even in the same suburban region in close proximity to D.C., different neighborhoods can tell very different stories.

As we move into October, it will be interesting to see if these patterns hold. The months of September through December are what I like to call, the "mini-market." It is a relatively short window of buying and selling activity. Traditionally, the housing market often slows as we head into the holiday season, however, this year the real estate landscape feels more uncertain. Many potential homebuyers are taking more time in making an offers and some home sellers are seeing Days on Market (DOM) beginning to climb. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rates have been hovering around 6.3% with a modest upward trend, adding extra pressure on affordability. And with the government shut down underway, we don’t know how long the disruption may last or how it might impact buyer and seller confidence. Some buyers and sellers may decide to wait on the sidelines until there’s more clarity. Whether the luxury markets keep pushing higher or the more moderately priced areas continue to draw the most activity, the October numbers will be telling for how Northern Virginia is setting up to close out the year.

Suzy Minken is a realtor with Compass based in McLean, Virginia and a recognized published voice on real estate and design trends. Suzy's insights have been featured in The New York Times, The Washington Post, Barron's, and more. You can connect with her on Instagram and LinkedIn, as well as via email at: suzy.minken@compass.com.