New Case Count Trend 'Concerning' But Vaccines May Help: DOH

WASHINGTON — The Washington State Department of Health says they are closely monitoring case counts after finding a slight increase recently in western Washington.

The vaccine rollout is progressing and restrictions are lifting, but everything isn't "back to normal" just yet, and health leaders say the state just cannot afford a fourth wave of COVID-19 cases at this juncture.

"We're at a high rate post-third wave, we're starting to see these variants," said State Epidemiologist Scott Lindquist. "I'm really concerned about where this sets us up for the future."

The concern: after each wave recedes, the baseline number of COVID-19 cases grows higher. Washington's case counts had plateaued after the first wave for several months, but daily case counts remained higher than they ever had been before, and the worry is that a fourth wave would push that baseline higher once again.

As with the third wave, this new trend of increasing case counts has largely been driven by younger adults aged 20-39 in western Washington. In eastern Washington, case counts have remained relatively flat.

The latest data suggests that the virus' reproductive rate is about .96 in Washington, meaning 96 out of every 100 patients will pass the disease to one other person. To shrink that baseline, the reproductive number needs to be significantly below one.

Keeping daily case counts low is especially important considering the appearance of three worrying COVID-19 variants in Washington state. Health experts say they're not sure what kind of impact those variants could have if they take hold, so keeping them from spreading is paramount.

It's not all doom-and-gloom however — the data also shows that vaccines are working to save lives, with hospital admission rates taking a sharp dive — it just means residents have to keep following safety guidelines for this final stretch of the pandemic.

"As we continue working to accelerate vaccination so we can protect more people, it’s critical that we all maintain the precautions we’ve been taking to stop the spread of the virus," Lindquist said.