New Model Shows How Washington's Schools Can Safely Reopen

SEATTLE, WA — The Washington State Department of Health and the Institute of Disease Modeling have released a new report which, they say, gives additional insight into how Washington's schools could begin to safely reopen classrooms later in the school year.

Currently, the state is advising almost all school districts remain entirely remote when classes resume in early September, but they've left the door open to the possibility that some classrooms could reopen as the pandemic wanes. Now, they've got a better understanding of how that could happen.

For the study, the Institute of Disease Modeling, or IDM, modeled three different scenarios: where Washington state is reporting 20, 50, or 110 new coronavirus infections per every 100,000 residents over 14 days before schools reopen. IDM says the models revealed several enlightening statistics:

• If schools were to fully reopen without any coronavirus-preventing countermeasures, as much as 25 percent of staff and 17 percent of students would have the virus and be infectious at school for at least one day during the school year.
• If the rate of coronavirus cases is at 20 per 100,000, 5 percent of schools can expect to have at least one person infected by the coronavirus. At the max rate of 110 per 100,000, that skyrockets to a 42 percent chance of having a coronavirus infection.
• A hybrid model allowing K-5 to rotate their time in the classroom could cut that chance to as low as 0.1 percent of students and 0.2 percent of teachers infect.

All of this is to say that, if the community can flatten the curve and get case counts under control, younger students and students with special needs could return to the classrooms, at least partially.

“There are three key messages from this report,” said Dr. Jeff Duchin, the Health Officer for Seattle & King County. “First, reducing the spread of COVID-19 in the community is the most important and effective way to reduce the risk to students, teachers and staff and get our children back to school as safely as possible. Second, there will always be some risk for COVID-19 and schools must take comprehensive steps to protect students and staff. And, third, when community COVID-19 activity decreases sufficiently, resuming in-person education with elementary students first makes most sense.”

But to reach that point, Washington does still have a ways to go. For one, only six counties have a rate lower than 25 cases per 100,000 residents, and the statewide average rate for coronavirus cases is over 120— higher than even the highest case rate used for modeling. The models also assumed that the pandemic was declining, with each coronavirus patient infecting one or fewer others. State officials say that while case counts may have plateaued over the last week or so, many parts of the state are not there yet.

“The report supports our guidance that full in-person learning is not wise right now given current COVID-19 transmission levels in most Washington communities,” said Lacy Fehrenbach, the DOH's deputy secretary for COVID-19 response.

And even when schools can reopen for in-person instruction, the safest option outlined in the model still only allows for about 17 percent of a regular school year's in-person attendance, with just the youngest students receiving two days of in-person learning each week. When asked if it would be possible for high school students to return to classes later in the year, health experts said it could happen, but would require a tremendous effort from the community at large to control the virus' spread.

"We need to be patient, and we need to understand that this coming year is going to be very challenging," said Duchin.

Related:

Washington Recommends Most Schools Should Remain Remote This Fall

CARES Act Funds Will Help 60,000 WA Students With Remote Learning