Omicron Surge Continues In Washington, But May Peak Soon

SEATTLE — The omicron coronavirus surge may peak soon in Washington, according to national health leaders, offering a glimmer of hope for Americans as the COVID-19 pandemic passes the two-year mark.

An NBC News analysis of Department of Health and Human Services data shows that COVID-19 cases are trending downward in 24 states. As of Sunday, the report said, numbers declined to 706,000 average cases per day from a peak of 825,000 on Jan. 15. The downward trending states are mostly along the east coast— many of which saw the omicron wave arrive before Washington, so the Evergreen State's downward turn could be soon to follow.

On Jan. 20, average hospitalizations peaked at nearly 160,000, though it takes a few days for hospitalization trends to catch up with daily infection trends, NBC explained.

“You never want to be overconfident when you’re dealing with this virus,” Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, said Sunday on ABC’s “This Week.” The coronavirus, he added, has “surprised us in the past,” but he nevertheless expects a peak in most U.S. states by mid-February.

“Things are looking good. We don’t want to get overconfident,” Fauci reiterated, “but they look like they’re going in the right direction right now.”

Washington's top health leaders have shared Fauci's cautious optimism over recent weeks. At the Washington State Department of Health's last weekly COVID-19 briefing, the DOH's Chief Science Officer Dr. Tao Sheng Kwan-Gett said the worst of the omicron wave may soon be over.

"There is some hope that we may be at or close to the peak in Western Washington," Kwan-Gett said. "However, we are also seeing an acceleration in the growth of cases in some parts of Eastern Washington, so overall in our state the situation will continue to be difficult over the coming weeks."

World health officials sounded similar optimism Monday with predictions that the omicron wave could give way to a new, more manageable phase of the pandemic. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, a Seattle-based organization, even predicted that omicron may herald the end of the pandemic and a return to normal living.

"As people's immunity declines and new variants emerge, we're also likely to see resurgences of COVID-19," said IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray. "But the current period of extraordinary social and economic disruption is likely coming to an end as COVID becomes a challenge that health systems manage, rather than a crisis that consumes society as a whole. I see reasons for hope."

The rapid drop of cases in most U.S. states follows a pattern seen in the United Kingdom and South Africa, with researchers predicting a period of slow spread in many countries by the end of March.

Related: Hope Seen Once Omicron Increases Global Immunity

The World Health Organization issued a statement Monday anticipating an end to the “emergency phase” of the pandemic this year, and said the omicron variant “offers plausible hope for stabilization and normalization.”

Fauci and Dr. Hans Kluge, the WHO’s Europe regional director, both cautioned against complacency.

New coronavirus variants are almost certain to emerge, they said. But with vaccinations, new drug therapies, and testing and masks during surges, the world could reach a less-disruptive level of the disease in which the virus is “essentially integrated into the general respiratory infections we have learned to live with.”

The Associated Press contributed to this report.