Health Leaders Urge Caution As Familiar Warning Signs Emerge

SEATTLE — Washington's top health officials are urging residents to buckle down, follow COVID-19 safety guidelines and get vaccinated if they can — or risk a fourth wave of coronavirus cases.

Right now, Washington still sees case counts in the high 600s each day, just shy of the peak of the second wave of cases last summer. And while daily case counts have declined significantly since winter's third wave, over the past few weeks they have been stuck at that high plateau, even increasing in some parts of the state. The stalling decline and a new uptick in hospital admission rates have officials worried that these may be the early warning signs of another wave of transmissions.

"Case counts and hospitalization rates in some parts of our beautiful state have actually gone up," said Gov. Jay Inslee. "In Whitman County, the cases are averaging 493 per 100,000 residents. This is off the charts. It's a demonstration of what can happen to us if we start partying like there's no tomorrow."

The plateau has largely been driven by more cases in younger adults. Vaccination efforts have caused a decline in cases in Washingtonians 60 and older, but those gains have been offset by more cases in young patients. That's concerning for two reasons. First: though younger adults are generally at lower risk of serious infections and death, it can still be a deadly threat. Secondly: the last wave started the same way, with younger, more mobile residents catching the coronavirus and then spreading it to more vulnerable groups.

At the Washington State Department of Health's (DOH) weekly briefing Thursday, state epidemiologist Dr. Scott Lindquist said that, while he had earlier been "cautiously optimistic" that case counts would drop off, he now feels "much more cautious than optimistic."

"The bottom line is that we are seeing some variability across the state and age groups, but this is time to proceed with caution," Lindquist said. "We need to really emphasize vaccinating as many people as possible."

Mass vaccination would be able to prevent the fourth wave, but demand for the vaccine still far outpaces supply — a problem that is likely to get worse next week when nearly two million more Washingtonians become eligible for vaccination, while vaccine allotments will remain roughly the same.

"When eligibility expands, appointments will fill up much faster due to the surge in demand," said Michele Roberts, head of the state's vaccine distribution effort.

One silver lining: next week the state will receive a one-time boost in the form of 42,800 additional doses of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. That will give Washington more than 400,000 total doses that week, more than the state has ever received in a single week. However, the following week allotment will be back to 350,000 doses, with no J&J shots. That's a concern because even 400,000 doses a week is not enough: health care providers requested nearly 500,000 doses this week, and with eligibility nearly doubling they'll want even more going forward.

"Right now supply continues to be the limiting factor, but we are hopeful that will continue to increase," said Secretary of Health Dr. Umair Shah.

That said, the vaccine rollout is still progressing. Health officials remain confident that if residents can hold out and follow safety guidelines for a few more weeks they'll be able to turn case counts and hospitalizations around. As of Thursday's update, more than 1 million Washingtonians have been fully vaccinated and nearly 3 million doses have been administered.

"Every single person who gets vaccinated and completes the series helps protect all of us and brings us one step closer to ending this pandemic, reopening our economy fully and being reunited with our family and friends," Roberts said.

Another tidbit of good news: the state's new COVID-19 vaccine finder has had a successful launch, with nearly 400,000 visitors since it opened last week — and helping 265,000 people find a vaccine appointment.

Those good signs, health officials say, are all the more reason residents should feel empowered to be patient just a little longer, and see the pandemic through.

"We have to continue to remind ourselves the importance of all the preventative measures, especially wearing a mask, but also staying away from others in close distances," said Shah.