CA Republican Pulls Ahead In Crowded Governor's Race, New Poll Says

RIVERSIDE, CA — While there is no clear frontrunner yet in the race for California Gov. Gavin Newsom's seat next year, the Republican sheriff of Riverside County has made a surprising leap over several prominent Democratic candidates, according to a new poll released last week.

In the survey from the Institute of Governmental Studies at the University of California, Berkeley, Bianco led the field with 13 percent of likely voters saying they would support him. Meanwhile, Democrat Katie Porter received 11 percent and Xavier Becerra garnered just 8 percent of likely support.

Orange County Rep. Porter, who was initially the assumed frontrunner, has fallen below Bianco in terms of voter approval after several recent controversies damaged her campaign.

While Porter was initially the front-runner for Newsom's seat, she has now dropped below Bianco.

The poll also found that 44 percent of respondents remain undecided, a clear indication of how open and fluid the race still is.

“The results suggest that the governor’s race remains wide open; with many Democratic voters still far from decided,” said IGS Co-Director Eric Schickler. “Now that Proposition 50 has passed, the candidates will need to now seize the opportunity to get voters’ attention."

READ MORE: Political Scandal Threatens Xavier Becerra's Bid For CA Governor

Here's how the survey showed support for the registered candidates:

With a large share of the electorate undecided and early polling showing a Republican ahead in what has historically been a solidly Democratic state, the 2026 California gubernatorial race is shaping up to be highly unpredictable.

In October, a snippet of a recent TV interview went viral, showing the progressive favorite Porter in an awkwardly tense back-and-forth with a reporter — at one point she threatened to walk out. Shortly afterward, a video surfaced of a 2021 interview showing her loudly berating a staffer.

After a round of condemnation from her Democratic rivals and a flood of online mockery, Porter showed no sign of stepping aside while her campaign lined up supporters to help her weather the fallout.

“In this critical moment in our country we don’t need to be polite, go along to get along, establishment politicians that keep getting run over by the opposition,” said Teamsters California Co-Chairs Peter Finn and Chris Griswold, which endorsed Porter in September. "We need strong leaders like Katie Porter that are willing to call it like it is and stand up and fight for everyday Californians.”

In UC Berkeley's most recent poll, it appears that Porter lost her lead to Bianco, who endorsed President Donald Trump. The sheriff's slim lead over a roster of Democrats has increased from 10 percent in August.

The last time the Golden State elected a Republican governor was in 2003, when Arnold Schwarzenegger took office.

Aside from Porter, it remains to be seen whether Becerra's campaign will lose steam after his own bid for governor became embroiled in controversy this month.

President Joe Biden's former Health Secretary isn't being accused of any wrongdoing, but a massive scandal involving his closest aides is raising questions about his competency. The former state attorney general, who served in Congress for 12 terms, reportedly didn’t learn that he and other top Democrats' aides had allegedly conspired to siphon money from their own campaigns until federal investigators approached him.

While the spotlight was initially focused on Gov. Gavin Newsom, who has publicly weighed a 2028 presidential run, that attention has shifted over to Becerra's own bid for Newsom's seat.

“If I was a voter looking at this, [I’d ask] why don’t you know?” Doug Herman, a Los Angeles-based Democratic consultant, told Politico. “And isn’t it incumbent upon people in those positions to know those answers? That’s why we elect them. That’s what we look to them to know."

But Bianco himself hasn't been immune to scrutiny. In September, Bianco was sued by Democratic opponent Stephen J. Cloobeck.

The sheriff was also put on blast in an opinion article posted this week in the Desert Sun: "Chad Bianco is breaking the law. He should know better."

The lawsuit, filed Aug. 19 in Riverside Superior Court, accuses the sheriff of "abusing his position" by violating a campaign finance law because he has worn his official sheriff's uniform at campaign events.

Cloobeck is also vying for Newsom's open seat next year.

According to state law (Government Code Section 3206), public officials and employees of local agencies are prohibited from wearing their uniforms while engaged in political activities.
Cloobeck's lawsuit says Bianco "repeatedly and brazenly" campaigned for governor while wearing his sheriff's uniform.

The lawsuit further asserts that by wearing his uniform while campaigning, Bianco is creating "a danger of voter and donor confusion, and the potential for coercion and undue influence of other officers and employees of Riverside County and elsewhere."

The presence of Bianco in his uniform at such events could also intimidate voters and those who "might be reluctant to oppose or contravene an acting Sheriff with considerable law enforcement resources at his disposal," according to the lawsuit.

Last year, Bianco similarly came under fire when he endorsed President Donald Trump in his uniform in a video posted to Facebook.

"I think it's time we put a felon in the White House," the Sheriff said straight-faced.
Bianco has since defended wearing his uniform.

According to the Press-Enterprise, Bianco addressed his choice of outfit in a TV interview.

“I’m an elected official,” he said, according to the newspaper. “And with that, in my personal pages, I can do anything that I want. There is only one sheriff’s uniform, and that’s mine.”

Californians will decide on their top two candidates for governor during the June 2, 2026, primary election. The top two winners will advance to the November general election.