California Prop. 30 In Hands Of Voters As Polls Show Uncertain Fate For Tax Hike

By Madison Hirneisen | The Center Square, The Center Square California

November 11, 2022

(The Center Square) – "After polls close in California Tuesday night, officials will get the first look at preliminary results for seven statewide ballot initiatives – including one that has voters split," according to recent polls.

Recent polls from the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies and the USC Schwarzenegger Institute indicate the vote could be close on Proposition 30, a measure that would raise taxes on personal income over $2 million by 1.75% to fund electric vehicle incentives and wildfire prevention efforts.

The UC Berkeley Poll, which surveyed likely voters one week before Election Day, found that 47% of likely voters would vote “yes,” 41% would vote “no,” and 12% remain “undecided.” The proposition must receive more than 50% of the vote to pass.

In a separate poll, USC found that "of 802 registered voters, 53% supported the proposition, while 47% were opposed." Analysts noted that the polling results are “well within” the +/-3.5 margin of error “given that some voters skipped this question on the poll (as some may also choose to do on Election Day).” They also dubbed it an “unpredictable tie” heading into Election Day.

Previous polling from the Public Policy Institute of California released in October indicated Prop 30 could’ve been poised to fail – just 41% of likely voters told PPIC they would vote “yes” compared to 52% who said they would vote “no.”

The results of the poll were welcomed by backers of the initiative, who expressed confidence that voters could push the initiative over the finish line on Election Day.

“Despite billionaires spending wildly to defeat a measure to clean up our air and guarantee climate action and adequate resources to reduce wildfires, Proposition 30 continues to lead in these polls,” Bill Magavern, policy director at the Coalition for Clean Air, said in a statement. “With the get out the vote efforts of the California Democratic Party and our strong coalition, we have the momentum to win on Election Day.”

The measure has support from various organizations and associations, including the American Lung Association, the Coalition for Clean Air, CalFire and California Environmental Voters. Supporters argue that the measure is necessary to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles and wildfires – two major sources of emissions in the Golden State.

Opponents of the measure, which included the California Republican Party and Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom, claimed the bill was a “tax grab” by the ridesharing company Lyft, which poured millions into supporting the initiative. In a September ad, Newsom claimed that the proposition would allow Lyft to grab a “huge taxpayer-funded subsidy.”

A Lyft spokesperson previously told The Center Square that “not a single dollar of Proposition 30 is earmarked for the rideshare industry.” However, Lyft could benefit from the initiative because Prop 30 would make it cheaper for the company’s drivers to make the switch to electric vehicles. Lyft and other ridesharing companies are under an order from state regulators to electrify their fleets by 2030.

California voters have until polls close at 8 p.m. to cast their vote at in-person polling locations or return their ballot to a ballot drop box. Ballots submitted in the mail and postmarked Tuesday will also be counted as long as they are received by Nov. 15.

Preliminary results will be released Tuesday evening, but it’s not clear how long it will take for final results to be reported.

The focus of the work of The Center Square California is state and local-level government and economic reporting that approaches stories with a taxpayer sensibility.