Control Of U.S. House Could Come Down To California

By Madison Hirneisen | The Center Square, The Center Square California

November 15, 2022

(The Center Square) – With Republicans on the cusp of controlling the U.S. House of Representatives, the balance of power could come down to California.

Fourteen U.S. House races remained too close to call Tuesday morning – 10 of which are in California. Five seats were called for Republicans by the Associated Press on Monday night, propelling the party to 217 of the 218 seats needed for a majority.

With votes still being counted, the call could come down to results in California. The AP called CA-45 for incumbent Republican Rep. Michelle Steel and CA-41 for incumbent Republican Rep. Ken Calvert late Monday night.

Of the remaining seats left to call in California, one seat has been labeled “likely Republican” and three have been labeled a “toss up” by Cook Political Report, meaning the seats could go in favor of either Republicans or Democrats.

Cook labeled the race in CA-3 between Republican assemblyman Kevin Kiley and Democratic candidate Kermit Jones as “likely Republican.” The latest results show Kiley leading with 53% of the vote, a lead of around 10,000 votes. The race had not been called by the Associated Press as of Tuesday morning.

Of the seats designated a “toss up,” one is located in the Central Valley, where the latest updated vote count shows Democratic candidate Adam Gray has a slight lead over Republican challenger John Duarte in CA-13. Gray held 50.4% of the vote as of Tuesday morning, representing a lead of around 780 votes.

"Duarte and Gray have been neck and neck as vote counts continue to trickle in. Late last week, Duarte was leading in the count," according to the Turlock Journal.

Other “toss up” races include CA-47 and CA-49, where Democratic incumbent Reps. Katie Porter and Mike Levin are fighting to retain their seats in Southern California. According to the latest count, "Porter held 50.6% of the vote over Republican challenger Scott Baugh."

"Porter’s Orange County seat voted for Biden in 2020, but after redistricting, about 60% of the district is new to her," according to Cook. "There are over 176,000 ballots left to count," according to the Orange County Registrar of Voters.

In the fight to maintain his seat that straddles Orange County and San Diego County, Levin had a lead over Republican challenger Brian Maryott as of Tuesday morning, holding 52.5% of the vote. The race has not yet been called by the Associated Press.

Corrections and Clarifications

This story has been updated since initial publication to correct the day of the week the Associated Press called certain U.S. House races.

The focus of the work of The Center Square California is state and local-level government and economic reporting that approaches stories with a taxpayer sensibility.