Weather
'Atmospheric Rivers' Predicted Early And Often In CA This Winter: AccuWeather Forecast
Where's your umbrella? California can expect atmospheric rivers "before the official arrival of winter," according to the latest forecast.
CALIFORNIA — After two straight winters of normal rainfall, plentiful snow, and full reservoirs, what should Californians expect this winter?
A new AccuWeather 2024-25 winter forecast released this week predicts that atmospheric rivers will begin flowing into the state "before the official arrival of winter" on Dec. 21.
In fact, "I think skiing in the West is looking really good," AccuWeather senior meteorologist and long-range expert Paul Pastelok said. "I think it's going to get kick-started right for the holiday season," he added, with Thanksgiving and Christmas looking very good for skiers.
Meteorological winter begins on Sunday, Dec. 1, and astronomical winter begins on Dec. 21, the date of the winter solstice and the shortest day of the year.
Atmospheric rivers and storms from the Pacific Ocean will focus on Northern California before tracking over the Rocky Mountains as winter gets underway. "Look for a potential shift in the storm track midwinter," Pastelok said.
This new pattern will open the door for storms to track farther south over Central and Southern California and push inland.
January could be the wettest month of the winter for Los Angeles and San Diego, as well as the Inland Empire.
Forecasters expect another shift in February, as storms again focus on Northern California. "As a result, the ski season could come to an early end at the ski resorts in the mountains of Southern California, northern Arizona and New Mexico," AccuWeather predicted.
A weak La Niña, like the winter of 2022-23, could bring a bonanza of moisture. Close to 40 atmospheric rivers hit the western U.S. that season, many of which impacted California.
And what about family and friends spread out across the country?
February is the most probable month for the arrival of a polar vortex — a large area of cold, low-pressure air rotating counterclockwise around Earth’s poles that can expand in the winter and send cold air southward. However, there’s less certainty this year about when, or if, the freezing air will make it to the continental U.S.
Most areas in the Northeast and Midwest will see more snow this year than last, with predictions returning to near historical averages in cities such as Boston, New York City, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Chicago and Buffalo, New York.
Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and other Midwest states could also see an uptick in snow. However, periods of snowy, cold weather could be broken up by the arrival of milder air from the Pacific flows across the country, beginning in early 2025, according to AccuWeather.
Winter is expected to feel like an extension of fall in the South, central southern Plains states, through the Mississippi Valley and up the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. When storms do arrive, they could bring a heightened risk of severe weather.
“You need to be aware of severe weather in the winter. We’ve seen in the past damaging thunderstorms in December, January, and February,” said Pastelok. “With mild air masses coming out of the west during the month of January, we could see the potential for severe weather farther north into places like Missouri, Arkansas, and Tennessee. As the jet stream dips farther south in February, we could start to see more severe weather in the Gulf coast states with warmer air and warmer waters from the Gulf of Mexico.”
AccuWeather, a private weather company, released its forecast Monday.
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