Garvey And Schiff To Square Off In CA's General Election Senate Race

CALIFORNIA — Historically low voter turnout may have play an outsized role in a major shakeup to California politics.

Early returns showed the Golden State on pace for a U.S. Senate race general election featuring Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) facing Republican Steve Garvey, a former MLB All-Star.

Schiff claimed victory at a Hollywood rally, but his speech was interrupted by protesters who loudly chanted "Cease fire now" and "Free Palestine." While security officials dragged some protesters out of the room, seemingly dozens of others remained, persistently chanting and forcing Schiff to try to speak over the din.

He was able to thank supporters and his family.

"It looks like we're going to the general, ladies and gentlemen," Schiff said. "So a little over a year ago we kicked off this campaign and I won't say it wasn't without its bumps along the way. I seem to recall, although it's a little hazy, within hours of our announcement a certain Kevin McCarthy kicked me off the Intelligence Committee. ... And then at the urging and badgering of Donald Trump, the Republicans censured me for holding him accountable. ... And then Trump would attack me after rally after rally.

"... But you had my back every step of the way, every step of the way. You helped us build the biggest grassroots campaign for Senate in California history and I cannot thank you enough."

It was then that protests broke out, and Schiff struggled to speak over the shouts, which highlighted a critical issue Democrats will be facing in the November elections — the U.S. handling of the Israeli-Hamas war.

Things were notably calmer in Palm Desert, where Garvey also proclaimed victory in heading toward the November runoff. He compared the election results to "what it's like to hit a walk-off home run."

"Your vote was your shared belief with me that California is no longer the heartbeat of America — but now just a murmur," Garvey said. "That we have challenges to face up to — like closing the border. And responsibilities to live up to —like helping the homeless off the streets with a pathway back to their dignity. And that if we do those things and more — that our best days will be ahead of us. With California once again being the heartbeat of America. As we celebrate tonight — I want you to know that we haven't come this far, to only go this far.

"When I stepped on the field for the Dodgers and Padres, I didn't play for Democrats, Republicans or Independents — I played for all the fans. And now I'm running for all of the people."

Porter conceded defeat during a gathering with supporters in Long Beach, saying that she remains convinced that voters want to see change in Washington.

"You want leaders who demand better from both parties, leaders who want progress not partisanship, officials whose bottom line is people, not profits," she said. "That is why we were able to turn heads in this campaign and make the people in power listen and run scared. Let's be honest, I think all of us can agree that our government isn't working well for us, for families, for Californians, for workers, for consumers. So many of those in power are too interested in helping other powerful people instead of paying attention to the needs of everyday people. Too many are more interested in being an elected official than in actually doing anything to fix the problems that everyday people face."

Lee issued a statement early Tuesday night thanking her campaign supporters and stressing the issues she was fighting for in the campaign.

"Universal healthcare, climate justice, economic equity, reproductive freedom, peace and security around the world -- these are only ideas if we don't fight for them," Lee said. "They're fights I've dedicated my life to.

"And seeing the passion and enthusiasm on the ground, willing to do the work and come out and join this fight -- I couldn't be prouder to know that progress is happening here in California."

A race that looked like it could be a clash between progressive titans — Porter and Lee — in one of the most liberal states in the nation took a sharp turn to the right this year when the famously centrist Schiff and Garvey, the Republican, rose to the top of the crowded field of candidates in the polls.

The Registrar of Voters and Patch will update the results throughout the night as votes are tallied, and the page will be refreshed for the latest updates.

Scroll through the results below for real-time California U.S. Senate primary election results.

Can't see the results? Click here for all March 5, 2024 California election updates.

In a year headlined by a likely presidential rematch that many Americans are dreading, California voters thus far have been sluggish to return mail-in ballots that were sent to 22 million homes earlier this month. The relative trickle of ballots has tended to come from older, white, conservative-leaning homeowners, a sweet spot for Republicans such as Garvey, a one-time National League MVP who played for the Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Diego Padres.

SEE ALSO: Real-Time Election Results: CA Proposition 1

California has an open primary, which means only the top two vote-getters in the primary election, regardless of party affiliation, move on to the general election. With Schiff and Garvey taking the top two slots, California is poised to send a white man to the U.S. Senate for the first time since 1988.

Heading into election week, only 1.7 million of California’s 22 million registered voters had returned their mail-in ballots, about 8 percent of the total, according to Paul Mitchell, vice president of Political Data Inc., a research firm that closely tracks voting trends and works with Democrats, independent candidates and academics.

SEE ALSO: California's Primary Could Fell Prominent Dems, Elevate Newcomer

“This is a low-interest, low-turnout kind of election cycle. That generally creates an electorate that is older, more conservative, whiter,” said Mitchell.

Mitchell said that enables Garvey to garner the highest total as the Democratic candidates splinter votes on the left.

Presidential elections usually drive Democratic turnout in California, but that hasn’t been the case this year, with President Joe Biden and Republican Donald Trump on track for a second matchup in which both are viewed unfavorably by many voters.

“I don’t see a surge of Democratic turnout coming in the end, but there could be a surge of Republican voters in the end,” Mitchell said. He said that could be driven by those voters influenced by Trump’s unsupported claims of election fraud who will vote in-person rather than through the mail.

By election morning, voter participation had inched up in some of the state’s largest counties, including Los Angeles where 10 percent of registered voters had already sent in their ballots. In nearby Orange County, which is seeing hotly contested congressional and county races, 16 percent of registered voters had cast their ballots by election day. Nevertheless, voter participation is shaping up to be historically low.

According to Mitchell, lower voter turnout in California would tend to benefit the minority party — Republicans.

For much of the race, Garvey maintained a low profile with a very small war chest compared to Schiff and Porter.

Critics have said that Garvey, 75, faces an uphill battle as a Republican hasn't won a Senate race in the state since 1988. In the state’s last two Senate races, only Democrats advanced to the general election under California's top-two election system.

However, Republicans have a history of converting star quality into statewide victories. Arnold Schwarzenegger used his star power to become California’s governor from 2003 to 2011. And in recent weeks, Garvey's campaign has surged with Republicans coalescing around him while Democrats are splitting their support among the other three top candidates.

Last week Garvey pulled into first place after consolidating conservative support and with a little help from an ad campaign by Schiff aimed at raising Garvey's profile over Porter, who was seen as the bigger threat in the general election. According to a poll from UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies, Garvey pulled into first place with the support of 27 percent of likely voters compared to Schiff's 25 percent and Porter's 19 percent.

Garvey said solving the homelessness crisis is one of his top priorities.

"We can’t just offer temporary fixes; we need to dig deep and provide comprehensive care that includes mental health, addiction treatment, and affordable housing," Garvey said on his campaign’s website. "This issue is about restoring hope, dignity, and humanity to our fellow Californians that are struggling on our streets."

The former baseball player said his focus will also be on public safety.

"I fully back our law enforcement and believe in the power of community policing and innovative crime prevention," Garvey said. "I'll work towards building strong partnerships between law enforcement and communities."

Schiff, on the other hand, garnered his political star-power as a leading antagonist of former President Donald Trump during his first impeachment trial. Schiff was one of the House’s Blue Dog Democrats, a caucus of more conservative Democrats, but he has become more moderate over the years.

He gained national prominence during the impeachment hearings and as a member of the Jan. 6 committee. His willingness to take on the Magaverse endeared him to many liberals.
In June, Schiff was censured by the Republican-led House on a party- line vote for comments he made during the investigations into Trump's ties to Russia. Schiff took the censure by Republicans as a badge of honor.

“From abortion and reproductive care to LGBTQ equality and the ability to vote — all of these inherent rights are under assault. We need to preserve and protect our rights and freedoms — and yes, expand them -- not take them away, as reactionary MAGA Republicans and a partisan Supreme Court have successfully done over the last few years," he said.

"For the first time in generations, our country and its citizens are seeing their rights and freedoms recede, not expand," Schiff said on his campaign's website.

"We're in the fight of our lives for the future of our country," Schiff said in a statement launching his campaign last year. "Our democracy is under assault from MAGA extremists, who care only about gaining power and keeping it. And our economy is simply not working for millions of Americans, who are working harder than ever just to get by."

He raised eyebrows during the campaign by running ads that framed the race as a contest between his Democratic credentials and Garvey's record. Those ads helped boost Garvey in the polls.

SEE ALSO: CA's Unpredictable, Bruising U.S. Senate Race

Political analysts said Schiff was intentionally raising Garvey up so can fend off the Democratic candidates now and dispatch Garvey in the November election.

"It's pretty clear Schiff is trying to bolster Garvey's credibility as his opponent in the runoff and then Schiff can take the rest of the summer off," Democratic political consultant Garry South told the Los Angeles Times.

Because of Democrats' overwhelming voter registration edge in the state and California's open primary system, analysts have opined that the race for the Senate will effectively be over if Schiff and a Republican take the top spots in March.

Porter, 50, a progressive star in the Democratic party, who flipped a longstanding Republican Orange County District, is better known for antagonizing large corporations and pushing for increased oversight and regulation. She criticized Schiff's ads as a political ploy during the final weeks of the race.

"Adam Schiff knows he will lose to me in November. That's what this brazenly cynical ad is about — furthering his own political career, boxing out qualified Democratic women candidates, and boosting a Republican candidate to do it," she wrote on X, formerly Twitter, in early February. "We need honest leadership, not political games."

Like Porter, Lee seems to be more closely associated with California’s progressive politics, but she never was able to reach the top two positions in the polls. She’s never lost an election before. Lee was first elected to the House in 1998 in a special election and has been reelected 13 times.

When Lee, 77, announced her candidacy for the Senate seat, she ran through a list of the personal and professional battles she has taken on in her life, including fighting to be her school's first Black cheerleader and championing protections for survivors of domestic violence. She's also the only member of Congress to vote against the authorization for the use of military force after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.

"I've never backed down from doing what's right. And I never will. Californians deserve a strong, progressive leader who has delivered real change," she said in a social media post announcing her campaign.

"We have to ease the burden on the middle class. We have to find a solution to poverty and homelessness. We have to take on the climate crisis. And we have to stop these MAGA extremists who think they can control people’s bodies and dismantle our democracy," Lee said in a campaign video.

All votes must be received by election officials by March 12. County elections officials have 30 days to tally all votes, and the race results will be certified by the state within 38 days of election day.

City News Service and The Associated Press contributed to this report.