Flooding Threat To Alameda From Rising Sea Levels

ALAMEDA, CA — Alameda might get smaller in 100 years, due to rising sea levels that threaten cities along San Francisco Bay — flooding structures, roads, and cutting Alameda off from other parts of the East Bay.

In Alameda County, sea level is predicted to rise six inches by 2030, 11 inches by 2050 and 36 inches by 2100, relative to levels in the year 2000, the City of Alameda reported in its Climate Action and Resiliency Plan. The predicted rise in sea level doesn’t account for storms, which temporarily raise the water level further.

At 36 inches of sea level rise, the Alameda Point, Marina Village, South Shore Lagoon 2 and Bay Farm neighborhoods would experience high exposure to flood waters, the city’s report said.

Flood waters at the Posey Tube entrance would cut the City of Alameda off from Oakland and block one of the main connections to the rest of the East Bay.

Sea levels would affect the Marina Village Yacht Harbor facilities, the Oakland Yacht Club and the Marina Village Shopping Center.

The Bay Farm area, especially its east side, would be at particular risk of flooding at a 36-inch rise in sea level. The water levels would pose significant exposure risk to homes and streets in the neighborhood and cut off residents’ access to other commercial, educational and recreational opportunities in the Bay Farm Area.

The East End and Eastshore neighborhoods would also experience flooding at a 36-inch water level. Homes along the shoreline and Towata Park and north of Encinal Avenue would experience flooding, and some residents would see impacts to the shore as a result of the coast’s erosion.

One report, by the California Ocean Protection Council Science Advisory Team Working Group, makes an even more dire projection, that sea level in the Bay Area could rise up to 6.9 feet by 2100, relative to levels in the year 2000.

As sea levels rise, the risk of coastal flooding and erosion increases for all Bay Area properties, and groundwater sources could be contaminated with saltwater. If combined with major storms, higher sea levels can cause flooding that damages local structures and cuts off roads and transportation options.

With even four feet of flooding over the next 40 to 100 years, the Bay Area would either lose or need to relocate nearly 104,000 existing jobs, and 85,000 new or planned jobs would not be created, or would be created outside the region, a 2020 report from Adapting to Rising Tides predicts.

The report also says nearly 13,000 existing housing units will no longer be habitable, insurable or desirable, and that 70,000 new or planned units won’t be built, or will be built outside the Bay Area.

The report also calculated the effect of flooding on the community, finding that more than 28,000 socially vulnerable residents would become more vulnerable by having to deal with daily flooding in their homes and neighborhoods.

Read the full City of Alameda Climate Action and Resiliency Plan
View Adapting to Rising Tides Bay Shoreline Flood Explorer
Read Adapting to Rising Tides Bay Area Short Report