"The Sunday Political Brunch" -- November 9, 2014

Dr. Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is Chief Political Reporter for WLNE-TV-ABC6 Providence, RI and a Political Analyst for KGO Radio 810-AM Sand Francisco.

(Providence, Rhode Island) – Yay!!! Election Day is over. That’s the good news! The bad news – Campaign 2016 starts today!!!! There is a lot to digest so let’s “brunch” on that this week!

“Predictions, Predictions, Predictions!” – So how did I do? Last week I predicted the Republicans would pick up a net gain of five seats in the Senate; seven seats in the House; and one Governorship. The final results appear to have the Republicans up seven in the Senate (with one race to be decided); up 13 seats in the House; and, plus two in the Governor’s mansions. So I erred on being too conservative - which oddly enough - is what the nation did, (pardon the pun).

“The Early Bird Gets the Worm?” – As I have been saying to anyone who would listen, the 2016 Presidential campaign started the day after the 2014 vote. So who is the first candidate out of the box? That would be retiring Gov. Rick Perry (R-TX), who is campaigning in the “first in the nation” primary state of New Hampshire Sunday and Monday. Perry, whose Presidential campaign imploded in 2012, is likely to make another run in 2016 (photo above).

“Oh, no! Not Another Poll!” – Okay for you political junkies who just can’t get enough, here is the latest Bloomberg/Des Monies Register poll of the 2016 Presidential preferences in the first caucus state of Iowa. Republican: former Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA), 17%; Dr. Ben Carson, 11%; Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY), 10%; Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ), 6%; and, former Gov. Jeb Bush (R-FL), 4%. As for the Democrats, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is at 53%; compared to Sen. Elizabeth Warren, (D-MA) at 10%; with the rest undecided. Remember, polls are not predictors, just a snapshot of one moment in time. This is where we are today!

“Swing State Shuffle” – It is interesting to note that three key swing, battleground states chose to reelect their Republican Governors. Those states and leaders are: Gov. Rick Scott (R-FL); Gov. John Kasich (R-OH); and, Gov. Scott Walker (R-WI). That may help position the eventual GOP nominee well in all three key states, but remember this – none of these Governors could deliver their states for Mitt Romney in 2012. President Obama won them all. However, things and opinions of Mr. Obama have changed, and all three of these states are likely “in-play” in 2016. Also, Gov. Kasich is a potential Vice Presidential nominee. He and Gov. Walker may also run for the Presidential nomination outright! Stay tuned.

“Congress Not Set in Concrete” – While the GOP is celebrating a huge national victory this year, it may be short-lived. First of all, public impatience and dissatisfaction is rampant, so I don’t think either side can claim a solid majority for long. Second, the GOP had a huge advantage in 2014 as Democrats were defending two-thirds of the seats that were up. That will flip for the Republicans in 2016, making their majority vulnerable. And third, if Hillary Clinton is the eventual Democratic nominee for President in 2016, she could have strong coattails that could swing the back to Democratic control. On the other hand, the GOP now holds a 59 seat advantage in the House, and switching that looks impossible for now.

“The Lynch Pin” – President Obama made a key strategic move. He nominated Loretta Lynch, the U.S. Attorney for the Eastern District of New York, to be the next U.S. Attorney General. First, she is eminently qualified, having twice served in her current post (the first being under President Clinton). Second, she has successful terrorism prosecutions under her belt. The big debate now is whether the current Democrat controlled Senate should hold her confirmation hearings, or if the new Republican controlled Senate should do it in January. The GOP should just let it go, and have her confirmed soon. Any appearance that they are attacking an African-American woman would be political suicide. I’m not saying “rubber stamp” her, but hold the hearings; ask tough questions; confirm her; and, move on! There is no upside to having a fight.

“Rhode Island Red… I mean Blue!” – Just about the only state where Democrats had something to cheer for this year, was in the smallest state of Rhode Island. Democrats won all five of the statewide Constitutional offices, three seats in Congress and the Mayor’s race in Providence. In fact this was one of the only states where President Obama came to campaign for candidates. He may retire here!

What are your thoughts on all of this? Just click the comment button at www.MarkCurtisMedia.com.

© 2014 Mark Curtis Media, LLC.

Photo courtesy: ABC News