"The Sunday Political Brunch" -- April 5, 2015

Dr. Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is an freelance political reporter based in New England, and a Political Analyst for KGO Radio AM-810 San Francisco.

(Delmarva Peninsula, Maryland) – Happy Easter and Passover to all! I spent three days this past week on the beautiful and fascinating Delmarva Peninsula on the East Coast. For those unfamiliar with the region, this includes the State of Delaware, the Eastern Shore of Maryland, and a portion of coastal Virginia jutting north from Norfolk. While it’s a summer vacation paradise for people from Washington, DC, Baltimore and Philadelphia, it may actually play a pivotal role in the 2016 Presidential campaign. Let’s “brunch” on that this week:

“Biden Time” – The region’s most famous politician is Vice President Joe Biden (photo right), who spent 36 years in the U.S. Senate before being elected to the nation’s number two job. I have been predicting that Biden will challenge former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton for the 2016 Democratic nomination. Biden wants to be a “placeholder” in case Mrs. Clinton falters for any reason. I bet he will run in the Iowa Caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, but if Clinton is well in the lead after those two contests, Biden will gracefully bow out. You might say he’s running, “just in case…”

“Maybe O’Malley” – I am also predicting that former Gov. Martin O’Malley (D-MD) will challenge Secretary Clinton for the nomination, too. O’Malley (photo left) will get in for reasons similar to Joe Biden’s – again, in case Mrs. Clinton stumbles. But O’Malley is also trying to build his name nationally for a more serious Presidential run in 2020 or 2024. People in this region know him well; people in Iowa and California (and everywhere else, for the matter), do not know him at all. He needs to build national name recognition. Right now, I am handicapping O’Malley as a “polite” challenger, who will eventually agree to be Hillary Clinton’s running mate.

“Virginia Swings for Presidents” – As mentioned, part of this strategic peninsula is in Virginia. The traditional “red” state has gone Democratic in 2008 and 2012, backing President Obama. Prior to that, the last time a Democrat won Virginia was President Lyndon Johnson in 1964. What was once a Republican “gimmie” state is now clearly one of the ten key battleground states in the nation. Virginia will be critical in 2016, especially if the GOP hopes to take back the White House.

“Old Money” – This region, which is “stone’s throw” from Washington, DC, is actually kind of slow and awkward to get to. The Chesapeake Bay separates the region from Baltimore and Washington, DC, and a series of bridges and rural highways, makes the trip a lot longer than “by the way the crow flies.” Perhaps because of that, it has become home to quiet political retreats for Democrats and Republicans alike. In fact there is a resort in Cambridge, Maryland where pols from both parties have huddled for strategic pow-wows with those in power over the years. It’s both close to the nation’s capitol; yet quietly out of sight. Many famous politicians have retired in the region, too.

“History” – The area is best known nationally for sending two men to the Vice Presidency, Republican Spiro Agnew in 1968 and 1972; and Democrat Joe Biden in 2008 and 2012. Many politicians here are long time office holders who have gained power through seniority in Congress and have their fingerprints on significant legislation. If you have a Roth IRA Retirement Account, the legislation was created by former Sen. William Roth (R-DE); and if you have corporate accounting and taxes regulated by the often criticized Sarbanes-Oxley Bill, it was named after Sen. Paul Sarbanes (D-MD). In short, this region has clout in the halls of power.

“The Latin Beat” – As with many other regions of the country, Delmarva – and its three states in total – have seen a significant increase in Hispanic voters. Many are attracted to the region’s still huge agricultural industry, and also the growing hospitality industry driven by tourism. The increase in that voting demographic alone, is probably the main reason why Virginia has switched from a solidly Republican state, to one that is increasingly electing Democrats, from the White House on down.

“Senate Showdowns” – This Presidential race notwithstanding, there are some other key races coming up in this region. Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D-MD) has announced she will not be seeking another term after decades in Congress. She chairs the powerful Senate Appropriations Committee, which is basically in charge of dividing up and spending all of your tax dollars. While many might downplay Republican chances of winning her seat in 2016, the GOP just put Gov. Larry Hogan (R-MD) in the Governor’s mansion. So, all bets are off.

“Why all of this Matters” – We often hear about the American power structure “inside the Beltway” but this region is just outside the Beltway. It’s close enough to wield power; yet distant enough to claim to be absolved of blame. In many ways, it is like a stealth aircraft. It’s a very strategic weapon, but only makes its presence known, if it so chooses.

Let us know your thoughts! Just click the comment button at www.MarkCurtisMedia.com.

© 2015, Mark Curtis Media, LLC.

Photo courtesy: Zimbio.com