CA Congressional Races Most Likely To Flip In 2022

CALIFORNIA — If 2020 seemed like a turbulent year in politics, well, 2022 brings more of the same. However, the drama in Tuesday’s primary election isn’t on California's statewide ballot where polls show the Democratic incumbents at the top of the ticket — Gov. Gavin Newsom, Atty. Gen. Rob Bonta and U.S. Sen. Alex Padilla — all but sailing to victory.

It’s the down-ballot races where things get interesting.

According to The Cook Political Report and the polling gurus at FiveThirtyEight, California has 10 competitive Congressional districts in this year’s midterm elections. Control of the House is at stake, and the voter mood nationally and in California is volatile. Once again, the path to congressional power runs through the Golden State.

Currently, Democrats hold the House with 220 seats to the Republicans' 208. There are also seven vacant seats. The party with 218 seats come November will control the House and with it the House committee investigating the Jan. 6 insurrection, ongoing funding and military support for Ukraine, federal legislation on issues ranging from oil dependency and gun control to a federal ban on abortion, and, of course, President Joe Biden’s agenda.

Voting’s already been going on for the past month in the June 7 midterm primaries, and the few polls out so far show that voter sentiment is characterized by anxiety about everything from skyrocketing inflation and crime rates to the overturning of Roe v. Wade.

Over the last two election cycles, the path to Congressional power depended on the Golden State's House of Representative seats (down one to 52 seats thanks to the population declines in the 2020 census) and the plethora of purple districts.

While Democrats are fighting an uphill battle to keep the House and the Senate, California is seen as a bulwark for Democrats during these midterms. The party might even have a shot of clawing back a pair of Southern California seats ceded to Republicans in 2020 thanks, in part, to redistricting. There are only three Congressional races in California that The Cook Political Report rates as a pure “toss-up,” and all three have Republican incumbents.

However, the GOP still has reason to be optimistic in California where polls show Republican and Independent voters are more enthusiastic about voting in the midterms this cycle.

According to a recent survey by the Public Policy Institute of California, most Californians say inflation, jobs, and the economy are the biggest challenges facing the state. Californians are divided along party lines about whether California is headed in the right direction, the survey found. But just 30 percent of the people polled believe the nation is headed in the right direction, a statistic that reflects national economic anxiety as well as the drag on the president's approval rating.

A whopping 52 percent of Americans disapprove of Biden's performance, according to a June 1 poll by Reuters/Ipsos. The president’s approval rating has been below 50 percent all year, according to the poll. His disapproval rating combined with the fact that the president’s party almost always loses seats during the midterms gives Republicans strong hope for taking control of the house in November.

California voters are particularly nervous about the economy. According to the Public Policy Institute of California, more than one in three say that inflation is causing serious financial hardship for their households.

The same poll showed that 64 percent of Californians say homelessness is a big problem in their part of the state.

It’s not clear which party has the more enthusiastic voters right now in California, said Claremont McKenna College Professor of Political Science John Pitney.

“On the one hand, inflation, the economic news could help Republicans,” said Pitney. “On the other hand, the Supreme Court decision concerning Roe v. Wade could boost Democratic turnout.”

Voter turnout is likely to play a key role in the November midterms, said Pitney. It’s also likely to be low due to the lack of suspense at the top of the ticket in California, he added.

“There's no question that it's a tough year for Democrats, (who are) probably going to lose control of the House, but things might be a little bit different here in California.”

While Republicans appear poised to gain seats nationwide, several GOP incumbents are facing the political fight of their lives.

Last Republican Standing

When Rep. Mike Garcia won his seat in the 25th District in 2020, it was no small feat. It was the first time a Republican had flipped a seat in California in decades. And he’s liberal Los Angeles County’s only Republican congressional delegate. It’s a seat he won in 2020 by a razor-thin margin of 333 votes.

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Then redistricting happened, and the newly formed 27th District doesn’t include the conservative bastion of Simi Valley like the 25th did. Though the Santa Clarita Valley district has traditionally skewed conservative, Democrats hold the edge among registered voters — about 41 percent Democratic and almost 30 percent Republican.

And Garcia’s voting record may skew to the right of his new district. He voted against certifying the 2020 electoral votes, legalizing Dreamers and reauthorizing the Violence Against Women Act, and he co-sponsored legislation that essentially bans all abortion as well as some birth control, the Los Angeles Times reported.

Former Democratic Assemblywoman Christy Smith, who lost to Garcia so narrowly in 2020 is giving it another go as is Democrat and navy vet Quaye Quartey. But it’s Smith who carries the heavy endorsements from the likes of the California Democratic Party and the Los Angeles Times.

Purple Orange County

In 2016, the birthplace of Richard Nixon voted for a Democratic presidential candidate for the first time since Franklin Delano Roosevelt. In 2018, three longtime Republican districts flipped, and conservative Orange County went shockingly blue. However, it didn’t last long. The GOP came back in 2020 and reclaimed two of those seats. The game of political musical chairs could continue this year.

In 2020, GOP Rep. Michelle Steel defeated freshman incumbent Harley Rouda (D), who had defeated longtime Republican Congressman Dana Rohrbacher in the coastal 48th District in 2018. Thanks to redistricting, Steel is now running in the 45th District, which leans slightly Democratic and includes parts of Los Angeles and Orange counties. Michelle Steel’s reelection may be imperiled.

Steel has staked out stances opposing abortion rights and gay marriage and the Equity Act, which prohibits discrimination based on sex and sexual orientation. Those stances could be at odds with suburban women voters energized by the potential reversal of Roe v. Wade.

However, she's popular with her base, and the race could come down to turnout.

Steel is in an already bitter battle against Democrat Jay Chen. The candidates and their supporters have slung accusations of racism, sexism and communist sympathies. The race is considered a toss-up.

Frustration with record gas prices and high inflation is likely to hurt the party in power, and the Democrats control both chambers and the presidency, said Chapman University Political Science Professor Fred Smoller. However, a lot could happen between Tuesday's primary and the Nov. 8 general election, he added.

The economy could stabilize or slip into recession territory, and the House will air televised hearings on the Jan. 6 insurrection, hammering Republicans on the issue going into the midterms, Smoller said.

If the Democrats see Steel as vulnerable, Republicans also see a chance to pick off a Democratic incumbent in Orange County.

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A slate of GOP candidates entered the race in the 49th District to take on two-term Rep. Mike Levin, another victim of redistricting.

Voter registration only slightly leans left with 36 percent of voters registered Democratic compared to almost 34 percent Republican.

Levin’s Republican challengers include former San Juan Capistrano Mayor Brian Maryott and termed-out Orange County Supervisor Lisa Bartlett.

According to The Cook Political Report, the race leans slightly in Levin’s favor.

Rising progressive star Rep. Katie Porter, incumbent of the neighboring, 47th District also has a fight on her hands. Her new redrawn district barely skews Democratic. It suffered an oil spill off the coast of Huntington Beach, and she spent the early months of her campaign going after the oil companies — most recently with the Consumer Fuel Price Gouging Prevention Act. She’s also campaigned on the issue of reproductive freedom, a stance that may resonate with voters leery about the Supreme Court’s upcoming decision likely reversing Roe v. Wade.

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Her chief opponent is Scott Baugh, a well-known figure in Orange County politics. He is a former state assemblyman and chair of the Orange County Republican Party. Baugh has sought to paint Porter as a radical. In taking on Porter, he’s up against a massive war chest. The incumbent has amassed nearly $19 million to spend in the general election.

According to The Cook Political Report, the race leans slightly in Porter’s favor.

Yet another Orange County Republican freshman is in a tight race.

Young Kim is battling to keep her seat in the 40th District. She has challengers on the left and right.

Fellow Republican and retired Marine colonel Greg Raths is gunning for her seat as is Democrat Asif Mahmood, a physician. Mahmood has been highlighting Rath’s conservative bonafides, a move that appears to be intended to weaken Kim in an inland Orange County district that tilts right.

According to The Cook Political Report, the race is leaning in the GOP's favor.

Trump’s Shadow

The third race labeled as a true toss-up is the 22nd in the Central Valley, where incumbent GOP Rep. David Valadao is in danger of being ‘primaried’ by fellow Republican Chris Mathys. Mathys is an ardent Trump supporter whereas Valadao has endured the ire of his party for being one of the few Republicans to vote for impeachment following the Jan. 6 insurrection.

The district skews slightly Democratic, and if Valadao makes it to the general election, he’s expected to face Democratic challenger Assemblyman Rudy Salas.

Open House

There are a handful of competitive House seats in California in which the incumbent isn't running for reelection. They included the 3rd, the 13th and the 7th Districts.

This week, the Fresno Bee called the Central Valley’s 13th District Republicans' best chance at flipping a House seat in California although The Cook Political Report rates it as leaning Democratic.

The newly redrawn district skews Democratic. Democratic Assemblyman Adam Gray and Phil Arballo are both running along with Republicans Diego Martinez, David Giglio and John Duarte.
Gray scored the Endorsement of the Fresno Bee.

“California’s 13th District is a top pickup opportunity for Republicans,” Torunn Sinclair, a spokeswoman for the National Republican Campaign Committee, told the Bee. “Whichever Democrat survives the primary will have no money and have to defend Democrats’ policies that have led to California’s record-high gas prices.”

In the 3rd District, Kevin Kiley, a Republican state legislator, who made a name for himself running against Gov. Gavin Newsom in the failed recall election, is battling with Democrat Kermit Jones, a navy vet, doctor and lawyer.

The district bordering Nevada skews Republican and The Cook Political Report rates it as likely Republican.

Conversely, the open Sacramento area 7th District leans left and is rated as likely Democratic. Longtime 6th District Democratic Congresswoman Doris Matsui is running in the 7th thanks to redistricting.

She snagged the Sacramento Bee’s endorsement.

“Matsui has championed legislation to document and combat anti-Asian American hate crimes and increase awareness of Japanese American internment,” according to the Sacramento Bee’s editorial board. “She also supports President Joe Biden’s decision to stop barring asylum seekers from the country on public health pretexts, which has divided her caucus.”

She is running against fellow Democrat Jimmy Fremgen, a teacher, and Republican businessman Max Semenenko.

Safe But Not Safe Enough

There are two districts identified by The Cook Political Report as competitive but unlikely to flip.

They include the newly redrawn 9th District which includes much of the Central Valley County of San Joaquin, which was part of the 10th District represented by Democratic Rep. Josh Harder.

Harder is now running to represent the 9th against a slew of fellow Democrats and a handful of Republican candidates including County Supervisor Tom Patti.

According to CalMatters, “Tom Patti, a Republican county supervisor and former boxing coach to Mike Tyson, may be best known for challenging vaccine requirements during the pandemic. So far, he has raised the most campaign cash — though his war chest is still a small fraction of Harder’s. But Patti will have to compete for the second spot on the November ballot with three other Republicans. That includes Jonathan Madison, a Bay Area lawyer who has cobbled together a degree of name recognition and conservative cred as an occasional guest on Fox Business.”

On the right, another district unsettled by redistricting but unlikely to flip is the 41st District which moved Palm Springs into Republican Rep. Ken Calvert’s district. It's been a long time since Calvert faced a serious challenge.

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Calvert has represented the Inland Empire district for decades, but his past opposition to gay marriage could come back to bite him as he seeks to represent Palm Springs, a left-leaning LGBTQ haven.

His Democratic opponent Will Rollins, an advocate of gay rights and a former assistant U.S. attorney, has raised the bulk of his largest donations from PACs devoted to LGBTQ issues, according to the New York Times.

Gay rights aren’t the only major policy decisions dividing the two.

Calvert voted not to certify the 2020 electoral votes on Jan. 6 and opposed the House committee’s investigation into the insurrection.

Rollins prosecuted high-profile Jan. 6 cases, telling the Times, “It was the experience of working on those cases and seeing ordinary American citizens, radicalized enough to invade the U.S. Capitol for the first time since the War of 1812, that got me thinking more seriously about how broken our information system is.”