CA Recall: Newsom Sees Path To Victory In New Election Poll

CALIFORNIA — With less than two weeks to go until recall election ballots are counted, a new poll suggested this week that Gov. Gavin Newsom may survive an effort to oust him from office — a contrast to previous polls that showed the Democratic governor's chances as iffy.

An Aug. 28 poll from SurveyUSA and the San Diego Union-Tribune found that 51 percent of 1,250 respondents would vote against recalling Newsom, while 43 percent would vote him out.

Those figures are a dramatic shift from the pollster's Aug. 4 poll, which found that that 51 percent of respondents would vote to recall him, and 40 percent would keep him in office.

There are a handful of reasons for the dramatic shift in Newsom's favor, according to Survey USA. Among other things, the pollster believed voter awareness has risen as Californians were able to hold tangible ballots and voter guides after they were mailed out last month.

Previously, Newsom's recall fight was plagued by voter apathy among Democrats. A staggering 40 percent of likely voters were undecided on who should replace Newsom, according to a July poll from the University of California, Berkeley's Institute of Governmental Studies.

"Voters received their ballots, snapping the recall into focus for many who previously may not have been paying attention," Survey USA said in a news release.

READ MORE: CA Recall Voter Guide: Who's In And What To Expect

Ballots began hitting mailboxes across the Golden State after they were sent out Aug. 16, nearly two weeks after the last round of recall polls.

"Today's electorate is more broadly representative of California as a whole than 4 weeks ago, when those paying the most attention to the recall were those most excited about the prospect of removing an incumbent Democrat from office," Survey USA said.

The recent results indicated that the voter interest gap could be closing.

Some 84 percent of Republicans reported that they already mailed their ballot in or were likely to vote, while 81 percent of Democrats answered the same.

Also in the last several weeks, the delta coronavirus variant has ripped through the state and its unvaccinated population, prompting a resurgence in coronavirus restrictions. The leading candidate to replace the governor — conservative talk show host Larry Elder — has said he would repeal all mask and vaccine mandates if elected.

"Voters concerned about the spread of COVID, newly focused on the possibility of Elder sitting in the Sacramento Governor's Mansion, may be newly sobered by the possibility of a recall," the pollster said.

The pollster also altered its second question, meant to mirror the ballot: Which candidate should replace Newsom? This time, the survey offered the option of leaving that question blank, which has been pushed by the Democratic Party in California for this reason: If more than 50 percent of voters cast a ballot to recall Newsom, the replacement candidate with the largest share of votes will win the governor's seat.

The new poll also gave respondents the option of choosing among the 46 candidates listed on the printed on the ballot. Previously, SurveyUSA named just seven of the most prominent GOP candidates and Paffrath.

"As SurveyUSA observed 4 weeks ago, in a recall, much like in a ballot measure election, voters are asked to choose between change and the status quo," SurveyUSA wrote. "Pollsters do not always capture how resistant humans are to change. In much the same way as opposition to any ballot measures increase as an election nears, the same may be the case here."

The poll offers an encouraging sign to the governor. It also found that "if the Democratic governor survives, it will be entirely because of support from minorities." Latinos reportedly back Newsom by 27 points, and Asian Americans back him by 21 points. Rural Californians, by 13 points, want him out, while suburban voters by 6 points and urban voters by 20 points want to keep him in power.

The Sept. 14 race will likely be a contest between the GOP's unofficial front-runner Elder and Newsom.

Elder has gained significant traction since he entered the race. Recently, he's risen in recent election polls and energized Republican voters, despite allegations of abusive behavior toward an ex-fiancee and an investigation into whether he financially misrepresented his income with the state.

Newsom has pushed back against the effort to unseat him, arguing that the campaign was backed by extremists, supporters of former President Donald Trump and those against the coronavirus vaccines.

"This is — and forgive me — a Republican-backed recall where the principal proponent of the recall effort wants to microchip immigrants," Newsom has said. "These folks don't believe in science let alone climate science, and they don't believe in the science behind this pandemic. There's a lot at stake for Californians in this race."

Read more about California's gubernatorial recall election:

• The Replacement Election In The Recall Is Unnecessary; Here's Why
  
• Recall Puts Elections Chief In Political Pickle
  
• Recall Fact And Fiction: What You Need To Know About The Election Fraud Rumors You're Seeing
  
• Newsom Leads Ad Spending In CA Recall
  
• Newsom Vs. Elder Standoff Intensifies
  
• If Newsom Is Recalled, How Would A Republican Governor Get Anything Done?
  
• Larry Elder Faces Claims Of Abuse, Financial Misrepresentation
  
• Newsom Recall: Could 1-And-Done Strategy Backfire?