Amid La Nina, SoCal Returns To Drought With Record Dry Weather

CALIFORNIA — Southern California's brief two-year reprieve from drought is over, as the region has experienced the driest start to its normal rainy season on record, meteorologists report.

While there's still hope for significant rain to arrive this month and next, the current forecasts provide a bleak outlook.

The Southland has gone nearly nine months without a significant rainstorm, leaving communities bone dry and vulnerable to fires, especially as a dangerous Santa Ana windstorm approaches this week.

National Weather Service Meteorologist Adam Roser told Patch that San Diego has experienced its driest start to a wet season since the 1870s. This alarming milestone — according to Jayme Laber, a hydrologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration — is also true for the rest of Southern California.

"The last time we even had over a quarter of an inch in downtown Los Angeles was April 14 of 2024," Laber said. "Usually by this time, we have a little bit of rain, but man, it has been really dry."

The storms that typically come to quell California's fire season usually douse the state by November or December. But there is still hope in that California's wettest months are typically January, February and March, Laber said.

According to NWS meteorologist John Dumas, Southern California typically needs 3 to 4 inches of precipitation to effectively end the high fire season.

"We are well below that in Southern California," Dumas told Patch. "Until we get the rain, each wind event will present the danger of fire starts and rapidly spreading fires as the conditions are so dry."

Communities and fire agencies across the Southland are bracing for a dry Santa Ana windstorm this week, which is expected to bring dangerous north-to-northeast winds. Forecasters predict that gusts could reach speeds of 60 to 80 mp, with some ridgetops seeing 90 mph winds. Red flag warnings will go into effect at various times on Tuesday for much of the Southland. (Read more about that here.)

Humidity levels are also expected to drop, most notably on Wednesday, creating dry conditions that could amplify the fire danger.

Unless a few rainstorms show up over the next few months, Santa Ana wind events like these could spell even more trouble for this part of the Golden State.

"You look at the short-term forecast and there's no rain in sight. It's going to continue to be pretty dry here, but the next three months are going to tell us where we're going to end up at the end of the year," Laber said.

But the chances of the next three months catching the state up to a "normal water year" are becoming less and less each day, Laber added.

Fortunately, the opposite end of the state has not suffered the same fate. Over in Northern California, the region has enjoyed near or above-average precipitation.

Laber says the state's current weather behaviors are consistent with La Niña conditions, which happens when cooler than normal sea surface temperatures are reported in the equatorial pacific.

"La Niña tilts the odds towards dryer than normal for the season across Southern California," he said.

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, Los Angeles are Orange counties have fallen into "moderate drought." San Bernardino, Riverside and Imperial counties are also under "moderate drought" while some regions within those counties have fallen into severe and extreme drought.

Sound familiar? In 2o22, most of Southern California was steeped in severe and moderate drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. But the last two years brought unexpected downpours, helping to fill the state's reservoirs.

And although the state's reservoirs are still in good shape, Laber says Californians shouldn't drop their guard when it comes to being water conscious.

"We just need to remind everyone that water is a precious resource here. We just need to conserve it, even if it appears we have a good supply right now," Laber said. "You never know, we could string together several years of drought, which puts us right back where we were a few years ago."