Uncalled CA Races Could Determine The Fate Of U.S. House

CALIFORNIA — A slew of undetermined and uncalled races in California could be the key to tipping control of the U.S. House.

Just about a handful of the Golden State's races were seen as tight enough to go either way. It takes 218 seats to control the House. Republicans had locked down 211 for far, with Democrats claiming 204, according to the New York Times as of Sunday.

Millions of ballots are yet to be counted and it could take weeks for these races to be called, keeping both parties on edge. About 60 percent of the votes have been tallied in California, the New York Times reported.

Democrats breathed a sigh of relief on Saturday after an anticipated red wave did not befall the U.S. Senate, but it remains to be seen what will happen after some 11 uncalled races are completely tallied.

Republicans hoped for a wipeout nationwide, but they didn't get it. After Democrats racked up several hard-fought wins in swing districts, like Rep. Abigail Spanberger’s Virginia seat, the sweeping wins many Republicans predicted had yet to materialize Wednesday.

If Democrats lose control of their slim majority, Republican Rep. Kevin McCarthy of Bakersfield would be in line to replace Speaker Nancy Pelosi of San Francisco.

"The House is really going to come down to California," Dave Wasserman, a House race analyst with the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, told MSNBC on Friday.

Jessica Levinson, a law professor at Loyola Law School in Los Angeles, told the San Francisco Chronicle that mail in ballots take longer to count and verify and a greater majority of those mailing in ballots are Democrats.

“That's not surprising, because Republicans have said over and over again that you can't trust the vote-by-mail system, you can't trust absentee balloting and so you need to go in on Election Day,” Levinson told the newspaper.

One of the tightest battleground races was still unfolding in Orange County. The region was once a GOP stronghold but it has become increasingly diverse and Democratic. There, Democratic Rep. Katie Porter, a star of the party's progressive wing, was pitted against Republican Scott Baugh, a former legislator, in an Orange County district about equally divided between Democrats and Republicans.

On Sunday, Porter had some 51.3 percent of the votes, while Baugh had 48.7 percent.

In another close contest in a Democratic-leaning district north of Los Angeles, Republican U.S. Rep. Mike Garcia saw his comfortable edge over Democratic challenger Christy Smith dip slightly. His margin remained at 12 points, 56 percent to 44 percent.

Democrats have long dominated California's congressional delegation, which is dropping to 52 seats next year, from 53 seats, because its population growth has stalled, though it remains the largest delegation in Congress.

In the current term, Republicans hold only 11 of the 53 seats in the strongly Democratic state.

With counting incomplete, Republicans claimed six races so far and were leading in six others.

Democrats tallied wins in 30 seats and were leading in 10 other contests. In two of those races, only Democrats were on the ballot, meaning the party will hold control of those seats.

But much uncertainty remained. As of Thursday, nearly 5 million ballots remained uncounted statewide.

Over in Riverside County, Republican Rep. Ken Calvert regained the lead after trailing Democrat Will Rollins. With about half the votes counted, Calvert held a 1-point edge. Calvert, first elected in 1992, is the longest serving Republican in the California congressional delegation.

The desert district morphed into a more competitive one after the area was redrawn to include Palm Springs, which has a dominant LGBTQ community. Still, the New York Times had put chips on Calvert's win. Rollins victory over the 30-year incumbent would be a major upset.

It remains to be seen whether Palm Springs liberals will be able to flip the red county blue.

In the Central Valley's 22nd District, where about half the votes have been counted, an update showed Democrat Rudy Salas cutting into the lead held by Republican Rep. David Valadao, who voted to impeach then-President Donald Trump. The two are divided by 5 points, after Valadao earlier had a more than 8-point advantage.

In a competitive district anchored in San Diego County, Democratic Rep. Mike Levin saw his edge grow slightly against Republican businessman Brian Maryott. Levin holds a 4-point margin, with about two-thirds of the votes tallied.

Speaking in San Diego County at a rally in support of endangered Levin last week, President Joe Biden said the outcome of the election would “determine the direction of the country for at least a decade or more.”

“This is a choice ... between two fundamentally different versions of America,” Biden said on Thursday.

SEE ALSO: CA's Ballot Propositions: What Passed, What Failed

Going into Election Day, the Golden State had the most competitive House races of any state. Republican party officials, anticipating a red wave, expressed confidence the party could flip as many as five districts in the state, giving the GOP control of the House. Even rising Democratic stars such as Porter faced genuine threats to their reelection, according to the polls heading into Election Day.

Democrats turned to their big guns before this election — former President Barack Obama, President Joe Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris and Gov. Gavin Newsom — to get out the vote in California.

In an urgent plea as his party faced the potential loss of House and Senate control, Biden asked voters to go to the polls to support Democratic candidates, warning that a Republican Congress would reshape America by cutting back on health care and threatening abortion rights and retirement security.

The president’s return to heavily Democratic California in the run-up to Election Day reflected the looming threat for his party in a turbulent midterm election year when Republicans appeared poised to take control of the House, a grim prospect for Biden heading into the second half of his term.

His stopover centered on safeguarding Levin's district, which has a slight Democratic tilt and cuts through San Diego and Orange counties and was carried by Biden by double digits in the 2020 presidential election.

He said Levin “delivers. He lowers costs for families, caring for our veterans protecting the environment.”

Biden was in a neighboring coastal district last month on behalf of another endangered Southern California Democrat: Porter.

But Democrats were forced to play defense, even in a famously liberal state that former-President Donald Trump lost by over 5 million votes in 2020. Biden’s sagging approval rating created a drag on Democratic candidates generally, although voter surveys indicate he's stronger in California than the nation as a whole.

“Even in areas where President Biden won by a strong margin, we’re seeing an unfortunate shift,” Porter wrote in a fundraising pitch a week before election day. “Republicans are polling well across the country and we’re seeing especially concerning trends in blue states like California.”

READ MORE: CA Election Results: Will A Red Wave Actually Hit California?