Like A Candle In The Wind: Mill Valley Readies To Ensure Next Megafire Won’t Happen Here

MILL VALLEY, CA — There's a nightmarish October surprise potentially looming for the bucolic Marin County community of Mill Valley: a wildfire of such destructive scope that it obliterates the entire town.

Mill Valley's residents are anything but paralyzed by this existential threat, however. Following examples set by citizens of other wildfire-vulnerable countries, they're rapidly ramping up their defenses against disastrous "megafires."

Nestled against the flanks of Mount Tamalpais, Mill Valley is characterized by steep gradients, heavy vegetation, narrow, twisting roads that make both evacuation and firefighter response difficult, and topographical "fire fingers" -- narrow gorges up the slopes of Mount Tam that can act as chimneys, concentrating and accelerating flames.

"Marin County has a lot of marine influence most of the year, and that keeps temperatures relatively cool and fuels moist," said Scott Stephens, a professor of fire science at the University of California, Berkeley. "But there are periods when the fuel bed gets incredibly reactive -- typically in early to mid-fall after a hot, dry summer, and during a heat wave characterized by strong offshore winds. That's when I really get concerned."

Certainly, a fire under those conditions could be catastrophic for the community. A blaze in the lower reaches of Mount Tam could explode upslope through hundreds of homes. Panic generated by the encroaching flames and billowing smoke combined with delayed firefighter response caused by difficult access could impose an enormous cost in lost lives and property.

California's communities need to take the initiative to reduce fire risk rather than relying wholly on emergency response services, Stephens said.

"Australia could be a model for us," said Stephens. "The communities there make their own local fire prevention and response plans and are supported with government assistance. Say you have 30 homes in a cul-de-sac or block -- they all get together a few times a year to refine and update their fire management and response plans. They'll coordinate on fuel reduction, identify neighbors that may need assistance with evacuating, and so on. And government fire services help by situating trailers in neighborhoods loaded with firefighting gear -- hoses, hydrant fittings, communications equipment, hand tools, even Nomex (fire-resistant clothing)."

Marin wildfire authority steps up

Mill Valley has harkened to that message. In 2019 -- largely in response to the catastrophic 2017 Tubbs Fire in Santa Rosa and the 2018 Camp Fire in Butte County -- 17 Marin County fire agencies joined to form the Marin Wildfire Prevention Authority. Funded by Measure C, a 2020 special parcel tax, the MWPA is instituting aggressive fire mitigation measures in Mill Valley and other hyper-vulnerable county communities.

The efforts reflect concern on multiple levels -- including household budgets. Like many communities located in the "wildland interface," Mill Valley residents are contending with skyrocketing home insurance rates and dropped policies. FAIR Plan policies -- which provide basic fire coverage through the state of California for homeowners who can't obtain traditional fire insurance -- jumped 52% from 2023 to 2024 for the Mill Valley ZIP code.

"We're not waiting for the fires," said Mark Brown, MWPA's executive officer. "We're helping coordinate community efforts to harden homes, create defensible space, and improve evacuation routes. To date, we've certified almost 80 'fire watch' communities in Marin. They have to show a committed level of effort that includes several meetings a year to maintain annual certification." Brown said much of MWPA's effort is focused on vegetation control.

"If a wildfire starts, we want it entering a community as a low-intensity, controllable fire rather than a high-intensity uncontrollable one," he said. "That essentially means clearing out brush and understories from around large trees and removing 'ladder' fuels -- the branches and small trees with trunks four to six inches in diameter that allow a low, slow fire to leap into a forest canopy and take off."

Brown said "shaded fuel breaks" are central to MWPA's overall strategy. Such projects typically consist of long corridors adjacent to roads or communities that are scheduled for periodic removal of lighter "flashy" fuels, allowing the continued growth of larger, fire-resistant trees.

"We're just starting the greater Mill Valley fuel break," he said. "When it's completed, it'll run 24 miles. We've already completed a 60-mile fuel break for Novato, and a 38-mile break for greater Ross Valley."

Deep in Mill Valley's bosky suburbs off Underhill Road, Southern Marin Fire District Deputy Fire Marshal Marshall Nau examined some recent fuel removal work. The difference between treated and untreated areas was profound: a park-like savannah compared to a temperate jungle. Lau pointed out a gorge choked with vegetation, noting the challenges implicit in a comprehensive fuel management program.

"This is a recognized waterway, so a lot of environmental regulations apply," he said. "We have to be aware of all possible impacts to wildlife, fisheries and archaeological sites. On our projects, we'll typically have a biologist, an archeologist and a (Spanish) translator working with us to ensure compliance with all (state and local) regulations."

On top of the red tape, Nau and his team have to liaison with every property owner affected by the district's fuel management programs to ensure compliance. This requires patience, he acknowledged. He pointed to a pile of desiccated oak branches that had been piled against a shed near a tennis and swim club.

"Exactly what we don't want to see," he said. "I'm going to talk to the club's managers now. If they can't get to it by this weekend, we'll send a crew out to deal with it."

Chippers, alerts and evacuation drills

In addition to fuel breaks, the Southern Marin Fire District has implemented a "roaming chipper" policy for residents in fire-prone areas, said Fred Hilliard, a division chief and fire marshal for the Southern Marin Fire District.

"On scheduled days, we'll bring a chipper through and dispose of material that residents remove from their properties and bring to the street," he said. "We've also implemented an updated alert system -- not just a siren, but a special long-range acoustical system originally designed for the military. A siren goes off, and that's followed by a voice that tells people what to do."

Further, said Hilliard, Mill Valley also has held two community-wide fire response drills to establish evacuation protocols. In sum, he said, the town is far more prepared than it was prior to the 2017 Tubbs Fire that made the North Bay's general risk for disastrous wildfire explicit.

"There's still a lot of work to be done," Hilliard said, citing the innate constraints of fireproofing a community with legacy infrastructure, steep topography, an aging and vulnerable population and a changing climate that's getting hotter, drier and windier -- particularly at critical times of the year.

"You can't move houses or widen streets here, so I don't think people should think we're completely prepared for 80 mph winds following five days of extreme heat," he said. "But we -- both community residents and fire response services -- are much better situated to respond operationally to fires, reduce their intensity and rate of spread, and alert and evacuate residents. Those are all positive developments."

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