CA's Next Big One: Nature May Have An Early Warning System, Study Shows

SAN FRANCISCO, CA — With the recent bout of earthquakes in the Bay Area over the last few months, many Californians may be thinking: When is the "big one" going to strike?

A mega earthquake along the Cascadia fault could serve as a precursor and send a warning to Bay Area residents, according to a study by researchers at Oregon State University.

A study found that at least 10 Cascadia quakes in the last 3,100 years coincided with jolts from the San Andreas fault. The findings suggest that the West Coast's two largest fault systems may sometimes rupture in sequence — a phenomenon scientists call partial synchronization. Two major quakes would be devastating to the West Coast, but there is a silver lining.

"When you have one fault rupture, it transfers stress to nearby faults, in this case the northern part of the San Andreas fault," Chris Goldfinger, the lead author of the study and an Oregon State University marine geologist, told the San Francisco Chronicle. "The issue is if there were a quake on the Cascadia, you wouldn’t know if San Andreas would go off in 10 minutes or 10 years — even as much as 50 years. But chances are it would be sooner than later."

The results, however, can be disastrous, according to a report by the San Francisco Chronicle.

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These faults unleashed two earthquakes in the 1700s — a rare, double-barreled disaster, according to the study.

The Cascadia fault unleashed a quake so large that it sank coastal villages and sent a "ghost tsunami" across the Pacific Ocean to Japan.

While the evidence remains inconclusive, sediment records show that many past earthquakes along the two systems happened within decades — or possibly hours — of one another.

According to Goldfinger, the San Andreas fault has a 37% chance of producing a 7.0 or higher earthquake sometime in the next 50 years. However, it also has the capacity to unleash an earthquake of 9.0 magnitude or higher, he said. Two massive quakes would test the nation's emergency response system and hinder aid via airport or ports due to infrastructure damage, he said.

Goldfinger suggests that if the Cascadia fault goes off in the Northwest, there could be enough time to get to a safe place before the San Andreas fault starts shaking. People should even consider leaving the Bay Area for a while, according to the report.

Read more from the San Francisco Chronicle. Local Editor Kat Schuster contributed to this report.

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