"The Sunday Political Brunch" -- January 15, 2017

Dr. Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is a nationally known political reporter and analyst based in the East Coast, who is a frequent contributor on KGO Radio 810-AM San Francisco.

(Washington, D.C.) - It is the Sunday in between Presidencies in the
United States. It's time to look back on what President Obama
accomplished, and forward to what President-elect Trump might accomplish

down the road. We are in the “heart of the beast” of politics in the
nation's capital for the next two weekends, so let's “brunch” on that:

“Making History” - I believe President Obama's most significant
accomplishment is simply having been the first African-American
President. That was no small task. His Presidency speaks volumes about
the
significant decrease in the racial divide in this country. That's
right! I said “decrease,” despite all the hue and cry that racism is
worse now than it was, say, forty years ago. The numbers back this
conclusion up. Obama received more votes from white Americans in 2008
and 2012 than Al Gore received in 2000 or John Kerry, in 2004. The
willingness of a majority of Americans to put then-Senator Obama in the
White House was ground-breaking, historic and a sign of how far this
nation has progressed with regard to race relations.

“Killing bin Laden” - Critics thought President Obama took too much
credit for the killing of terrorist Osama bin Laden. But go back and
look at Obama's statement in which he clearly and rightly credited U.S.
Intelligence and military personnel for making it happen. Just remember
that the final call is up to the Commander in Chief. If he doesn't give
the order, the mission doesn't happen. That power can cut both ways, of
course. President Jimmy Carter's attempt at a military rescue of the
U.S. Hostages in Iran was a disaster and cost him dearly. President
Obama made the right call on the right day by taking the right advice.
Good riddance, bin Laden!

“Obamacare” - Whether you support the Affordable Care Act, or not,
the fact that it passed is a lesson in political willpower and
persuasion. People as diverse as President Richard Nixon and Senator Ted

Kennedy tried to craft a national health care plan, but couldn't find
the votes. President Obama saw a rare opportunity in 2010 - with
Democratic majorities in both the House and the Senate - and took the
risk.
Its supporters “read the room,” counted the votes, and had enough to
pass what's become known as “Obamacare.” You may love it; you may hate
it; but it passed and became law. Even if it's repealed, the
Republican majority promises to replace it with something better. Health care remains a political work in progress.

“Obama's Cuba Folly” - This one is probably the luck of good timing,
rather than political skill; but, again, it happened on Obama's watch.
President Obama opened up U.S. relations with Cuba; and, within a couple

of years, Fidel Castro died. I've always thought that – no matter who
was President of the United States when the Castros were gone - Cuba
would emerge as a thriving democracy, with lots of U.S. Tourism and
business investment there. It's coming; just you wait and see. I've even
joked about a thriving Trump resort and casino on Cuba's shore. It
could happen! In the 1860's, many laughed at Secretary of State William
Seward's
controversial purchase of Alaska, soon known as “Seward's Folly.” In a
different way, opening relations with Cuba could be characterized as
“Obama's Folly” - a controversial move which turned out
to have huge advantages.

“Economic Ebb and Flow” - It's not fair, but Presidents get credit
for economic good times (e.g. Eisenhower, Reagan, and Clinton) and blame
for bad times (e.g. Carter, Bush I, and Bush II.) Truth be told, the
Federal Reserve, private enterprise, innovation, and investment
opportunity are the real drivers of the economy. As I've often said of
the late 1990's, the economic boom was more about Bill Gates than about
Bill Clinton. Yes, Presidents and Congress can nibble around the edges
of the economy with tax and spending policies, but are small players.
President
Obama – whether he deserves it or not – will get credit for helping
move the disastrous 2008 economy to where we are today.

“Midterm Report Cards” - Another way to evaluate a Presidency is to
look at what happens in the midterm elections. In the early midterms of
2009, Republicans elected governors in New Jersey and Virginia. In 2010,

the GOP seized control of the U.S. House on the heels of Obamacare and,
in 2014, took control of the Senate under the same impetus. Yes,
President Obama won a second term in 2012, but his party was roundly
rejected
again in 2016 at both the state and national levels. One of Obama's
legacies is that – other than his own inspiring campaign in 2008 – his
agenda had no coattail effects for his party down ballot. In a
sense, he got himself elected, but no one else.

“Promises Made; Promises Not Kept” - If you search deep into my blog
archives, you will find my predictions about political promises made in
2008. At the time, Senator Obama campaigned on closing the military
prison
at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, but I predicted it would never happen. Why
didn't he follow through? Well, I suspect that when he started getting
daily intelligence briefings, he had an “Oh my God” moment! It's
one
thing to campaign to become President; it's another to actually have
the job. Some of the terrorism and national defense threats must be
jaw-dropping when you first see them, especially when you had planned
to close Guantanamo.

“Path for Trump” - Here is my prediction for President Trump: Even
though he promised to build a wall on the U.S.-Mexican border, my bet is
that it never happens. A fence or wall is old-school. Would China build

a Great Wall today? You can build electronic and computerized
surveillance, with infra-red cameras and all kinds of technology, plus
you can double the number of border patrol and immigration agents.
Mexico
says it won't pay for the wall, and Congress is unlikely to make U.S.
taxpayers foot the bill. More realistic measures include automatic
deportation of immigrant criminals, who are here in sanctuary cities and

elsewhere. Immigration reform is most likely to work as eight or nine
separate bills concerning separate issues, rather than trying to pass
one big, all-encompassing immigration bill.

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