"The Sunday Political Brunch" -- September 27, 2015

Dr. Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is a freelance Political Reporter based in New England, and a Political Analyst for KGO Radio AM-810 in San Francisco.

(Providence, Rhode Island) – There was a big upheaval in Congress this week when House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) announced his resignation. Boehner – a sentimental and often emotional Irish-Catholic - made his announcement just one day after meeting with Pope Francis in Washington, DC (photo above). His resignation could have a huge ripple effect - even in the Presidential campaign. Let’s “brunch” on that this week:

“It’s All About Ohio” – At its very basic, the Boehner announcement could hurt the GOP in Ohio. Remember, Republicans historically only win the White House when they carry the Buckeye State. Boehner – who hails from Dayton – carries a ton of influence in his home state. The Republican National Convention in 2016 will be held in Cleveland, which also adds to the state’s cache. But, without the sitting Speaker in the home camp, it loses some luster.

“Beating the Bushes” – The Bush name has been magic in Ohio, except one time. In 1980, 1984 and 1988, with George H.W. Bush’s name on the ballot, the GOP won in the White House by carrying Ohio. In 2000, and in 2004, George W. Bush won Ohio – and the White House - by a one-state margin. The only time the Bushes did not carry Ohio was in 1992, when the senior President Bush lost to Bill Clinton. Memo to Jeb Bush: If you are the nominee for the Republicans, you must win Ohio in November!

“Native Son” – The one GOP candidate who may have a lock on carrying the state is Governor John Kasich (R-OH). He’s held political office in Ohio for over 30 years, so he has a big home-state advantage. His big problem is that he’s in the single digits in national Presidential polling, and unless his numbers improve soon, he may be toast by the time the Ohio primary arrives on Tuesday March 15, 2015.

“The House of Cards” – Of course the more immediate problem for Republicans is finding a new leader in the House of Representatives. How that affects the GOP’s chances of retaining control of the House in 2016 – as well as control of the Senate; not to mention winning the White House – remains to be seen. A nasty, tumultuous House battle to succeed Boehner as Speaker, could have a trickle-down effect and hurt the party’s image, not to mention its command of Congress. This is worth watching!

“Who’s On First?” – The immediate favorite for Speaker is House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA). Like Boehner, McCarthy is a conservative – but a pragmatist when compromise is needed. The GOP Tea Party Caucus – which fought Boehner to distraction – is likely to field an aggressive alternative to McCarthy. It could get bloody!

“Who to Watch?” – Remember that the Republicans need to build bridges with two demographic groups in order to win back the White House – women, and Hispanic voters. She may not be in the running for Speaker yet, keep an eye on Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-WA), who will be running for House Majority Leader – the number two job. Right now she in the GOP Conference Chair – the number four position. She is the only Member of Congress to ever give birth to three children while in office. That may help with the “mom vote” like nothing else.
“Memories” – I’ve had the good fortune to know and cover the last five Speakers of the House. When I worked for the Cox Media Group in its Washington, DC Bureau, we had WHIO-TV7 in Dayton, OH, Boehner’s district; WSB-TV2 Atlanta, which included the district of former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA); and KTVU-TV2, in the district of former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA). I knew House Speaker Tom Foley (R-WA) from his leadership of the American Political Science Association, where I was a Congressional Fellow in 1992-93; and I knew former House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-IL) as he and my dad grew up in the same, small Illinois town. I’ve been lucky, and it’s been extremely fascinating to watch from a seat up-close!

“God Bless You My Friend” – I learned this past week of the passing of my dear family friend, Carl Mehlhop, of San Francisco. Carl was my life insurance agent at Northwestern Mutual Life in San Francisco, but he was also a long-time close family friend of my late father William; my brother Bill; and, my sister Taurey; as well as my wife Kathi, and our children, Alexandra and Patrick. Carl – like me – was a political junkie and was a regular reader of this weekly political column. I will never forget that he hand-delivered my book on the 2008 Presidential campaign, to our mutual friend and national Democratic power-broker, the late Walter Shorenstein. God rest your soul Carl, we all love and miss you!!!

What do you think of the House leadership shake-up? Just click the comment button at www.MarkCurtisMedia.com.

© Mark Curtis Media, LLC.

Photo courtesy: