Weather
Isaias Tree Damage Had Several Factors: Analysis
Droughts, moths and high leaf area were other factors in why Tropical Storm Isaias caused so much tree damage, according to a new analysis.
CONNECTICUT — Tropical Storm Isaias was in many ways a strange storm for Connecticut. There was little precipitation, strong winds for an early-season storm and great local variability in wind speeds. But Connecticut’s problems related to the massive amount of outages also had other factors, according to a new analysis by the UConn-based Eversource Energy Center.
Trees in Connecticut had a few factors going against them before the storm hit. Mid-summer is the peak season for leaf cover. Tree root systems have also been weakened by the severe 2016 drought and dry conditions since then. Gypsy mother infestations also didn’t do trees any favors in recent years.
The energy center is a partnership between Eversource and several University of Connecticut schools that touch on engineering, agriculture and business. The center helps with forecasting damage for storms and research on vegetation management and electrical grid reinforcement. The center provided its predictions to both Eversource and United Illuminating.
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Tropical Storm Isaias’ damage exceeded the outage prediction models of the EEC. Some localized pockets of the storm had sustained wind speeds that reached levels seen during Hurricane Sandy and Irene, according to the new analysis. Each new model predicted more and more damage.
“But at the time of the fifth and final prediction, during the morning of Aug. 4, a few hours before the storm, we were certain that the storm would produce an extreme impact in Connecticut, although not as severe as what actually developed due to the novel characteristics of Storm Isaias,” said Diego Cerrai, EEC’s manager and an assistant professor in the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering.
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Warm season severe storms are less common than later-season storms like Irene and Sandy, according to the analysis. In recent history only Irene and Sandy had similar predicted wind speeds and those storms occurred in late August and late October respectively.
The EEC plans to include vegetation science and drought conditions in its damage predictions going forward.
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