La Niña Likely This Winter: Here's What It Means For CT

CONNECTICUT — With recent chilly nights providing a prequel, Connecticut residents may be wondering what this upcoming winter will bring.

Will we have significant snowfall and frigid temperatures, or will it be milder than usual? How much will we be using our snowblowers and shovels?

The answer may lie with La Niña, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center announced this month that a brief period of La Niña conditions is favored in the fall and early winter of 2025-26, before reverting to El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral.

The La Niña pattern can mean colder and wetter than usual weather in the northern United States.

The Weather Center at Western Connecticut State University is forecasting colder than normal temperatures and above-normal snowfall for the 2025–26 winter season in Connecticut, according to Gary Lessor, meteorologist and assistant to the director.

This winter is expected to be a “stark contrast to recent years, which have been mild and largely snow-starved,” Lessor said.

The 2025-26 winter season is expected to be influenced by an ENSO-neutral to weak La Niña pattern, according to Lessor.

Currently, the ENSO phase is neutral, meaning sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean are between +0.5°C and -0.5°C, according to the Weather Center and National Weather Service.

Sea surface temperatures must be consistently above +0.5°C for El Niño or below -0.5°C for La Niña, Lessor said.

NOAA’s latest predictions are for a shift toward La Niña around October.

“ENSO-neutral is most likely through the late Northern Hemisphere summer 2025 (56% chance in August-October),” the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center announced. “Thereafter, a brief period of La Niña conditions is favored in the fall and early winter 2025-26 before reverting to ENSO-neutral.”

Temperatures in the North Atlantic will also play a factor in the upcoming winter weather, according to meteorologists.

“North Atlantic Ocean temperatures are cooling, and that trend is expected to continue,” Lessor said. “This could further support a colder, snowier pattern across parts of North America by affecting the jet stream and storm tracks.”

Meteorologists caution that predicting winter weather in September can be challenging.

“One challenge in making seasonal forecasts this early is the influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation — a short-term, tropical atmospheric pattern that can significantly impact weather conditions over the span of 30–60 days,” Lessor said. “Its lead time is relatively short, which limits its predictability for long-range forecasting.”

Other atmospheric oscillations — such as the Arctic Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and Pacific-North American pattern — also will play a major role in determining how the winter evolves, according to Lessor.

“These patterns will help decide whether this early forecast holds or needs adjustment as we move closer to the winter months,” Lessor said.

The National Weather Service will be issuing regular updates and ENSO analyses in the coming weeks. Visit the Climate Prediction Center website, and check here for predictions through November 2026.

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