Polar Vortex Is Strengthening: What It Means For CT Winter Temps, Snow

The forecast for warm temperatures on Christmas Day in Connecticut is a harbinger of what’s to come for most of the country through March, according to a new winter forecast.

On Christmas, the National Weather Service is predicting the entire state will be under mostly cloudy skies, with a 40 percent chance of precipitation.

In northern Connecticut, there is a chance for rain and snow on Christmas, while in southern Connecticut, forecasters predict any precipitation will be in the form of rain. High temperatures will be in the low to mid-40s.

Most of the state, except for southern Connecticut, has a possible chance for a white Christmas, according to the Weather Channel.

The National Weather Service is currently predicting snow to fall in Connecticut on Tuesday.

"A weak system is still set to arrive on Tuesday and confidence is increasing for a period of light snow especially in the morning, but mixing with rain is possible in the PM especially along the shoreline," said WFSB 3 TV meteorologists. "It’s our Next Big Thing....Temperatures will be in the mid-30s. Wednesday, Christmas Eve, will feature more sunshine with temperatures around 40. The relatively mild weather continues into Christmas Day with an increase in cloudiness." (Read more at WFSB 3 TV).

Relatively warm temperatures are expected to continue into the early part of 2026 in the East as the stratospheric polar vortex strengthens at the beginning of the year, according to The Weather Channel’s outlook.

It may sound counterintuitive, but the stronger a polar vortex is, the less impactful it is, according to The Weather Channel. A stratospheric polar vortex, which is higher up in the atmosphere and usually stable, differs from the better-known tropospheric polar vortex, which is lower down in the atmosphere and typically brings severe cold snaps to mid-latitude states.

The private weather service’s January to March outlook for Connecticut calls for:

• January: above average temperatures
• February: well above average temperatures
• March: about average temperatures, slightly colder than normal

Highlights of The Weather Channel’s outlook include:

• January will likely continue the late-December pattern with above-average warmth across the southern two-thirds of the country.
• February could see the warmest weather relative to average along the East Coast.
• Without the polar vortex in play, conditions are expected to resemble La Niña: warmer than average in the south and cooler in the north.
• The northern U.S. will likely see wetter-than-average conditions, while the southern U.S. is more likely to be drier.