These Are The Factors CT Uses To Track How Your School Reopens

CONNECTICUT — The state has begun publishing the county-specific coronavirus infection rates which serve as the leading indicator for whether or not a school district should allow in-person education. New numbers will be released weekly and inform school districts how to reopen and when to pivot should a new wave of the virus hit.

The good news is that no Connecticut county as of Thursday was near the trigger number of 10 new cases of COVID-19 per 100,000 people per day.

Fewer than 10 cases per 100,000 people qualifies as a "low" infection rate, based upon metrics adapted from recommendations by the Harvard Global Institute and supplemented by existing guidelines from the state Department of Public Health.

DPH will classify counties with between 10 and 25 cases in the same statistical range as having a "moderate" infection rate, which would favor the less densely-packed classrooms of a hybrid attendance model. If a county records more than 25 cases per 100,000 people per day during a rolling seven-day period, the state will urge school districts there to adopt a total remote learning plan.

Although it's the primary indicator, the coronavirus infection rate is not the only guideline the state and the districts are tracking. DPH is also basing its in-person/remote recommendations on a metric called "percent test positivity." That's calculated by dividing positive tests by the number of total tests each week.

The chart below shows the weekly percent test positivity since March 2020. If nothing else, it graphically displays how quickly cases spiked in the spring and how the infection curve has eased under control since. Fairfield County, which peaked with nearly 50 percent positivity just before the close of March, has been under 2 percent since the end of June. Fairfield continues to lead in this category, however, primarily due to a recent flare-up in Danbury cases.

Another secondary indicator monitored closely by the DPH is the number of new COVID-19 hospital admissions.

The hospitalization data used to create this metric comes from the Connecticut Hospital Association. Note that hospitalization data are based on hospital location, not county of patient residence.

As the chart below shows, last week Connecticut hit its lowest number of coronavirus hospitalizations in nearly five months.

The final data set taken into consideration by DPH as it makes recommendations to school districts on whether to keep everyone home or bring all or some students back, actually doesn't involve COVID-19, per se. Hospitals are tracking the emergency room visits by residents who display COVID-19-like and influenza-like illness (CLI and ILI) symptoms. This "syndromic surveillance" is the third of the state's secondary indicators.

Anyone admitted to an ER complaining of fever and cough or shortness of breath or difficulty breathing, but does not exhibit influenza-like symptoms is factored into the list.

Again, the hospitalization data used to create this chart comes from the Connecticut Hospital Association, and are based on hospital location, not county of patient residence.

Connecticut is making its school reopening recommendations based upon countywide, and not town-specific data, because of its relatively small population. Infection and disease rates for many conditions (including COVID-19) can become extremely unstable as statewide statistics are analyzed by smaller geographic areas, according to the DPH. As such, analyzing any of the suggested leading or secondary indicators at the individual town or school district level in the state will result in rates that are "too unstable to be of any use in continuous decision-making."

Although the state's high marks in all the metrics has led Gov. Ned Lamont to urge every school to reopen for full in-person learning, only about 55 percent of school districts are taking that plunge. The remaining 44 percent are opting for a hybrid model.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention publish the national version of the data here.

See also: Timeline, New Details On New Federal Unemployment Checks For CT

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