Hurricane Lee Reaches Category 4 Status; Will It Make A U.S. Landfall?

Updated at 6:55 p.m. ET

FLORIDA — Hurricane Lee rapidly intensified Thursday and is a major Category 4 hurricane with 130 mph maximum sustained winds , the National Hurricane Center's reported during its 5 p.m. advisory. Forecasters said it is likely to reach the top of the scale, a monster Category 5 storm, but whether it hits the United States is still unknown.

A Category 4 storm has sustained winds of 130-156 mph. “Catastrophic damage will occur,” the NHC said in a description of such an impact. "Well-built homes will lose or suffer damage to most of their roofs and exterior walls. Top floors of apartment buildings will be damaged, and fallen trees and wires will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks or months, and most of the area will be uninhabitable."

As Hurricane Lee travels over the warm waters of the Caribbean, the hurricane is expected to strengthen and potentially become a "catastrophic" Category 5 hurricane by Friday morning, said the NHC.

Located about 780 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands at 5 p.m., Hurricane Lee is churning in a west-northwest direction at 15 mph with hurricane-force winds extending outward up to 30 miles from the hurricane's center and tropical storm-force winds extending up to 140 miles.

On the forecast track, the core of Lee will move north of the northern Leeward Islands during the next several days.

"Additional strengthening is expected tonight," the NHC said. "Fluctuations in intensity are expected after that, but Lee is forecast to remain a powerful major hurricane well into next week."

A turn in its path to the north this weekend could mean it doesn't make landfall in the United States, although the mid-Atlantic and Northeast might feel its effects.

The storm will likely reach its peak intensity this weekend, with dangerous surf and rip currents spreading across the northern Caribbean on Friday and affecting the United States on Sunday, the NHC said.

Lee’s winds are expected to peak at 160 mph, or Category 5-strength, Friday night as it approaches the eastern Caribbean, CNN reported. Computer model trends for the storm have shown the hurricane taking a turn to the north early next week. When that turn occurs and how far west Lee has tracked at that point will largely determine how close it gets to the U.S.

AccuWeather predicted Wednesday that Lee will strengthen into a Category 5 hurricane this weekend.

“Lee poses a risk to people from the northern Caribbean to the eastern Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, Bermuda and Atlantic Canada over the next week to 10 days," AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter said in a news release.

AccuWeather predicted Lee could affect East Coast beaches next week by causing "rough surf and seas" and dangerous rip currents. Like the weather service, AccuWeather said Lee will likely not directly impact the Southeast or mid-Atlantic states.

Even if the hurricane stays off the coast, dangerous surf and rip currents could threaten the Eastern Seaboard, CNN reported.

The waters in the Atlantic are not quite as warm as the Gulf of Mexico, which fed Hurricane Idalia last week. But, sea-surface temperatures across the portion of the Atlantic Ocean that Lee is set to track through are still 3.6 degrees above normal after rising to “far above record levels” this summer, David Zierden, Florida’s state climatologist, told CNN.

Related:

• Hurricane Lee Likely To Be 'Extremely Dangerous Major' Storm: NHC
• Experts Predict Above-Average Hurricane Season In Final Forecast
• Hurricane Idalia Slams Into FL's Big Bend: 'Unprecedented Event'
• Never Been Through A Florida Hurricane? Here's What You Should Know

A path to the north of the Leeward Islands is good news for Florida and the Carolinas, which are still recovering from the impacts of Hurricane Idalia last week. Idalia made landfall in Florida's Big Bend area on the Gulf Coast as a Category 4 hurricane and proceeded north into Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina, causing significant flooding.

The Leeward Islands are a group of islands situated where the northeastern Caribbean Sea meets the western Atlantic Ocean. Located east of Puerto Rico and 1,425 miles southeast of the United States. They include U.S. and British Virgin Islands, Saint Kitts, Saint Martin and Antigua.

"The steering pattern for Lee is straightforward," NHC hurricane specialist John Cangialosi said. "A subtropical ridge (a large belt of high pressure) situated to the north of the hurricane should steer the system west-northwestward during the next several days, but the forward speed will likely slow down late in the weekend and early next week."

"The models are in fairly good agreement that significant strengthening should begin later today and continue into the weekend, when Lee will likely reach its peak intensity," Cangialosi said. "Fluctuations in strength are likely from days three to five due to potential eye wall replacements, but Lee is still expected to be a dangerous hurricane over the southwestern Atlantic early next week.

Although there are no watches or warnings in effect in the Caribbean islands at this time, the predicted slower motion toward the west-northwest forecast over the weekend could cause large swells to reach the Lesser Antilles on Friday, and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Bahamas and Bermuda on Saturday and Sunday.

These swells may cause life-threatening surf and rip currents, said the NHC.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Hurricane Center no longer uses spaghetti models showing various trajectories for hurricanes because, according to NHC Director Michael Brennan, they can be confusing and shows tracks that are unlikely,

However, he cautions hurricane watchers to also beware of the NHC's graphics showing the track forecast cone, nicknamed the "cone of uncertainty."

Historical data indicates that the cone graphics showing the five-day path of the hurricane's center are only accurate 60 to 70 percent of the time due to uncertainties in track, intensity and size.

In the meantime, the hurricane center is keeping a close eye on Tropical Depression 14, which formed Thursday morning over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.

It's located about 160 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph and higher gusts. It is moving west-northwest at 17 mph, and this motion is expected to continue during the next several days as the storm gradually strengthens and is forecast to become a tropical storm later Thursday.

Measuring Hurricane Winds On Saffir-Simpson Scale

Hurricanes are measured 1 to 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. While the scale makes references to wind speed, it’s really concerned with the type of damage that winds at particular speeds will create – in other words, intensity, which is not always a direct link to wind speed.

Category 1: Sustained winds of 74-95 mph. “Very dangerous winds will produce some damage.” A Category 1 hurricane could destroy older mobile homes and damage newer ones and poorly built houses. Well-built homes could have damage to shingles, siding, gutters and soffit panels.

Category 2: Sustained winds of 96-110 mph. “Extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage.”“Substantial risk of injury or death to people, livestock and pets.” Mobile homes built before 1994 will probably be destroyed, as will some newer ones, and some poorly built homes. Near total power loss expected.

Category 3: Sustained winds of 111-129 mph. “Devastating damage will occur.” Poorly built frame homes will be wrecked. Unprotected windows will be broken by flying debris. Well-built homes will be damaged, older metal buildings will fail.

Category 4: Sustained winds of 130-156 mph. “Catastrophic damage will occur.”Well-built homes will lose or suffer damage to most of their roofs and exterior walls. Top floors of apartment buildings will be damaged, and fallen trees and wires will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks or months, and most of the area will be uninhabitable.

Category 5: Sustained winds greater than 157 mph. A high percentage of frame homes will be destroyed with total roof failure and wall collapse. Nearly all trees will be snapped or uprooted. Power outages will last for weeks or months, and most of the area will be uninhabitable.