Tropical Depression 'Likely' to Form South of Florida, Forecasters Say

CLEARWATER, FL — Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are keeping a close watch on a large low pressure system that’s kicking up showers in the southwestern Caribbean Sea. That system has been given a strong chance of developing into a tropical depression over the next few days.

Although the system remained disorganized as of the hurricane center’s 1 p.m. Nov. 16 Tropical Weather Outlook report, that is expected to change over the next few days. “Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for slow development during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or over the weekend,” the hurricane center wrote.

The system has been given a 30 percent chance of developing more over the next 48 hours. Those chances rise to 80 percent over the next five days. As of Wednesday afternoon, forecasters said the storm was moving “slowly and erratically.” Should it develop enough to earn a name, it will be called Otto.

Just what track the storm might take should it develop is too soon to tell.

The system’s appearance on the scene comes at the end of the traditional hurricane season, which runs from June 1 through Nov. 30 each year. The season peaks between mid-August and mid-October. Hurricane Matthew, which wreaked havoc on Florida’s east coast in early October, formed during the traditional peak.

Late-season hurricanes are rare but not unheard of. Hurricane Ida in 2009 initially formed on Nov. 4 and peaked as a Category 2 storm, according to The Weather Channel. Lenny, which formed in 1999, is considered the strongest late-season storm to form in the Atlantic. That Category 4 monster was especially unusual because it took a west to east path through the Caribbean Sea. The storm crashed into the Lesser Antilles on Nov. 17, 1999 while packing maximum sustained winds of 155 mph.

To find out more about hurricane season and storm preparation, read these related Patch stories:

• Hurricane Season 2016: Where To Find Local Information
• 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season’s Peak is Now
• 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Released
• Hurricane Season: How to Prepare
• 2016 Hurricane Names: Is Yours On the List?
• Tampa Bay 'Ripe for Disaster,' Hurricane Experts Say

To keep up with storm activity as the season develops, bookmark the National Hurricane Center’s website, and keep an eye on your hometown Patch site for local information.

Map courtesy of the National Hurricane Center