Tropical Disturbance Forms on Heels of New Hurricane Predictions

TAMPA BAY, FL — Fresh on the heels of revised 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season predictions by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, a new tropical disturbance has formed. Located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, the storm has been given a 50 percent chance of developing over the next five days.

According to the National Hurricane Center, environmental conditions are ripe for the disturbance’s gradual development over the next few days. Those conditions, however, could become less favorable as the week continues.

Forecasters say the system is moving west-northwestward at about 10 to 15 mph. As of Monday afternoon, the tropical wave was described as a disorganized system of cloudiness and thunderstorms.

The new disturbance popped up on the heels of NOAA’s release last week of revised predictions for this year’s hurricane season, which ends Nov. 30. Forecasters at NOAA say there’s a 70 percent chance of 12 to 17 named storms forming this year with two to four major hurricanes possible.

See also: Atlantic Hurricane Season Predictions Get Worse

The initial outlook called for 10 to 16 named storms, four to eight hurricanes, and one to four major hurricanes. The seasonal averages are 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

The season so far has given rise to five named storms, most recently Hurricane Earl. The only storm so far to have a major impact on the Tampa Bay area was Tropical Storm Colin. The rainmaker formed in June, leaving flooding in its wake.

NOAA said there is a higher likelihood of a near-normal or above-normal season, decreasing the chance of a below-normal season to only 15 percent from the initial outlook issued in May.

While it’s still way too early to tell if this latest disturbance will have an impact on the Tampa Bay area, forecasters say it’s important to remain prepared throughout the season.

To find out more about hurricane season and storm preparation, read these related Patch stories:

• Hurricane Season 2016: Where To Find Local Information
• 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Released
• Hurricane Season: How to Prepare
• 2016 Hurricane Names: Is Yours On the List?
• Tampa Bay 'Ripe for Disaster,' Hurricane Experts Say

To keep up with storm activity as the season develops, bookmark the National Hurricane Center’s website and keep an eye on your hometown Patch site for local information.

Image courtesy of the National Hurricane Center