Hurricane Forecast Downgraded In Atlantic

MIAMI, FL — The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has downgraded its hurricane outlook for the remainder of the 2018 season, which runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. In releasing its revised Atlantic outlook Thursday, officials said they anticipate 9-13 named storms with winds of 39 mph or greater but possibly no major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or greater.

"Conditions in the ocean and the atmosphere are conspiring to produce a less active Atlantic hurricane season than initially predicted in May, though NOAA and FEMA are raising caution as the season enters its peak months," officials said in downgrading its hurricane outlook on Thursday.

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Forecasters now say there is only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal hurricane season, a 30 percent chance of a near-normal season and a much higher chance of a below-normal hurricane season at 60 percent.

“There are still more storms to come – the hurricane season is far from being over," warned Gerry Bell, who is the lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. We urge continued preparedness and vigilance."

NOAA is calling for a total of 9-13 named storms, which have winds of 39 mph or greater. Of those, four to seven storms are expected to become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or greater. Forecasters believe we could see anywhere from no major hurricanes up to two that have winds of 111 mph or greater.

"So far, the season has seen four named storms, including two hurricanes," according to NOAA officials. "An average six-month hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes."

The downgraded forecast is based on several factors, according to forecasters.

"El Nino is now much more likely to develop with enough strength to suppress storm development during the latter part of the season," NOAA officials said. "Today, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center updated its forecast to a nearly 70 percent likelihood of El Nino during the hurricane season."

Moreover, officials cited cooler than average sea surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea.

"A combination of stronger wind shear, drier air and increased stability of the atmosphere in the region where storms typically develop will further suppress hurricanes," officials added. "Storm activity to date and the most recent model predictions also contribute to this update."

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration WP-3D Orion aircraft flies directly into hurricanes. Photo by Paul Scicchitano.