2nd Tropical Wave Pops Up In Atlantic, Eyed For Development: NHC

FLORIDA — A second tropical wave has popped up off the coast of Africa in the Atlantic Ocean, just behind another disturbance currently near the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean Sea — and both are being eyed for potential development, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The tropical wave approaching the Caribbean Sea, while disorganized, has a 40 percent chance of strengthening into a tropical depression over the next seven days, the NHC said. “Gradual development of this system is possible during the next few days and a tropical depression could form sometime next week while it moves westward,” the center said.

If a storm develops, it could become Francine, the sixth named storm of the 2024 hurricane season.

The wave is expected to reach the Lesser Antilles on Monday. After that, there’s a lot of uncertainty about where it might move next and how strong the storm could be, forecasters said.

“Organization not expected until (the) middle of next week. Until then, models will show a large spread and exact ultimate track is unpredictable at this point,” Denis Phillips, chief meteorologist for ABC Action News, wrote in a Friday morning Facebook post.

He added, “It could go anywhere from Texas (Latest GFS) to off the East Coast of the US. However, if this were to impact Florida, it would probably be next weekend. (BTW, the GFS was the run showing Florida hurricane yesterday and today it has a Texas landfall. (Tomorrow, who knows?)”

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The system is being steered west by high pressure to the north, Weather Channel meteorologists said. “Regardless of development, the Lesser Antilles could see heavy rain and gusty winds as the system moves through. However, it's still uncertain how much this system will organize and where it will go once it reaches the Caribbean. The strength of the Bermuda high and resulting upper-level pattern will help determine where exactly this system tracks next week.”

The strength of the storm is in question as well, Matt Devitt with WINK Weather wrote in a Thursday evening Facebook post.

“If it takes a more northern track it could run into one or several mountainous islands...taking a toll on its strength and organization,” he wrote. “If it takes a more southerly track, it would spend more time over the very warm waters of the Caribbean and potentially get stronger if that coincides with lower shear.”

The newest tropical wave has a 20 percent chance of developing over the next seven days, NHC said.

It’s currently between Africa’s west coast and the Cabo Verde Islands, where it’s producing “minimal shower and thunderstorm activity,” the agency said. “Some slow development of this system is possible through late next week while it moves slowly to the west-northwest over the
eastern and central tropical Atlantic.”

While it’s “not an immediate concern for land areas,” forecasters will continue to keep an eye on it, according to The Weather Channel.