3 Areas Eyed For Tropical Storm Growth In Caribbean, Atlantic: NHC

FLORIDA — While weather forecasters have been watching a swath of low pressure in the Caribbean Sea that could potentially strengthen into Patty, the next named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, in the next few days, they’re now also eyeing two other areas for possible tropical development.

The area in the southwestern Caribbean has a 30 percent chance of developing over the next two days and a 70 percent chance within the next seven days, according to the National Hurricane Center.

It will likely form a tropical depression or storm late this weekend or early next week as the system drifts north or northwest over the central or western Caribbean, forecasters said.

High pressure building over the Atlantic in the coming days will help push this potential system northwest toward the Gulf of Mexico, FOX 13 Meteorologist Dave Osterberg said.

This system is expected to absorb a new trough of low pressure in the northeastern Caribbean, near Puerto Rico. This low-pressure area is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Greater Antilles and nearby Atlantic and Caribbean waters on Friday, NHC.

Slow development of this new system is possible as it moves west-northwest near the Greater Antilles over the next few days, forecasters said. Whether it develops or not, it’s expected to bring locally heavy rains from the northern Leeward Islands west across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola to eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas over the next few days, according to meteorologists.

“It's a complicated set-up with lots of features to monitor, including a trough of low pressure near Puerto Rico, a large area in the Caribbean where tropical development should occur, and a large ridge of high pressure over Florida,” Fox 13’s Paul Dellegatto wrote on Facebook.

Any system that moves across the Caribbean will cross deep, warm waters, but will face cooler waters if it moves into the Gulf.

"There's a much lower heat content than what we had just six to eight weeks ago, so that will make a difference into how all this plays out," Osterberg said.

High wind shear and drier air in the Gulf will also affect the potential tropical system, Denis Phillips, chief meteorologist for ABC Action News, wrote in a Facebook post. “While we probably see Patty within a week, the threat is much lower with this than previous storms. Whatever forms will likely get ripped up once it gets into the Gulf.”

“The way I see it, smaller storms deepen quicker and also weaken quicker. So, even if what could be Patty next week, odds are it will hit those obstacles and have issues,” he wrote, adding, “November storms are very rare. Nothing to be overly concerned about. Honestly, I hate to even post about all these ‘what ifs’ but considering the buzz is everywhere, I kinda feel like I need to.”

This system is unlikely to affect Florida, Dellegatto added. “The general pattern favors an area of high pressure over Florida that will keep anything that forms west of us — with potential track towards the northern Gulf coast as a weakening storm as a reasonable solution. We will see if the high stays in place as predicted. Regardless, we are not looking at major hurricane impacts regardless of what happens. Any impacts along the Gulf Coast would not be until late next week or next weekend.”

A storm-force non-tropical low-pressure area producing some showers has also popped up in the north Atlantic about 400 miles west of the western Azores, the NHC said. There’s a 10 percent chance of subtropical development of this low as it moves east over the next seven days.