3 Tropical Waves Form Days Ahead Of Hurricane Season: NHC

FLORIDA — Days ahead of the official June 1 start to the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which ends Nov. 30, the National Hurricane Center is tracking three tropical waves, a possible sign of what forecasters predict will be an explosive hurricane season.

Two of the waves have formed in the central Atlantic, while the third is in the western Caribbean, forecasters said in the NHC’s Tropical Weather Discussion on Wednesday.

All three waves are showing signs of “scattered moderate convection,” forecasters said.

• Also Read: Historic Number Of Hurricanes Predicted In 2024: NOAA

Despite the early activity, no tropical cyclones are expected to develop over the next seven days, according to the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook.

“While models aren’t wanting to develop it, waves are clear signs the tropics are about to wake up - and early waves hint at active years,” Eric Burris, WESH meteorologist, posted to X, formerly Twitter. “We’ll be watching.”

Forecasters with WFTV said the timing of the waves’ formation “is not out of the ordinary.”

Still, an historic hurricane season is anticipated this year, National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration forecasters said during a May 23 news conference.

• Related: Historic Number Of Hurricanes Predicted In 2024: NOAA

There’s an 85 percent chance of an above-normal hurricane season this year, a 10 percent chance of a near-normal season and a 5 percent chance of a below-normal season, they said.

The agency predicts 15 to 25 named storms this season — the highest number NOAA has ever forecast.

Of these storms, eight to 13 of them could reach hurricane status with maximum sustained winds of at least 74 mph, while four to seven are forecast to become major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph.

This historic forecast is largely driven by a La Niña weather pattern, which suppresses wind shear, and historically warm ocean waters.

Related:

• 'Extremely Active' 2024 Hurricane Season Predicted: What To Know In FL
• ‘Explosive’ 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Predicted: Forecasters

The research team at Colorado State University in April predicted 23 named tropical storms this season, including 11 hurricanes, five of which could be Category 3 or higher major hurricanes.

The chances for a busy season are a combination of record-warm Atlantic Ocean surface temperatures and atmospheric patterns that boost tropical cyclones, CSU researchers said.

The overall probability of major hurricanes making landfall somewhere in the continental U.S. is 62 percent, compared to an average of 43 percent, forecasters said.