Tropical Storm Helene Aims For Gulf, 61 FL Counties Under Emergency

Updated: 4:14 p.m. Tuesday

FLORIDA — Gov. Ron DeSantis updated a state of emergency Tuesday afternoon to include 61 of Florida’s 67 counties as Tropical Storm Helene barrels across the Caribbean Sea.

It’s expected to intensify to near hurricane strength by early Wednesday and could be a major hurricane as it approaches the northern U.S. Gulf Coast on Thursday, the agency said. Landfall is most likely somewhere in northern Florida along the Gulf Coast.

Evacuations are already planned in Sarasota County starting Wednesday morning. Pinellas County has not yet ordered evacuations for residents; however, mandatory evacuations are under way at long-term care facilities, assisted living facilities and hospitals in Zone A.

The state of emergency includes Alachua, Baker, Bay, Bradford, Brevard, Calhoun, Charlotte, Citrus, Clay, Collier, Columbia, DeSoto, Dixie, Duval, Escambia, Flagler, Franklin, Gadsden, Gilchrist, Glades, Gulf, Hamilton, Hardee, Hendry, Hernando, Highlands, Hillsborough, Holmes, Jackson, Jefferson, Lafayette, Lake, Lee, Leon, Levy, Liberty, Madison, Manatee, Marion, Monroe, Nassau, Okaloosa, Okeechobee, Orange, Osceola, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, Putnam, Santa Rosa, Sarasota, Seminole, St. Johns, Sumter, Suwannee, Taylor, Union, Volusia, Wakulla, Walton, and Washington counties.

Hurricane and storm surge watches are already in place for much of Florida’s west coast, while tropical storm watches are in place for areas just inland.

Hurricane watches are in effect Tuesday afternoon for Bay, Calhoun, Charlotte, Coastal Collier, DeSoto, Gulf, Hardee, inland Hillsborough, Lake, Lee, inland Manatee, eastern Marion, mainland Monroe and Middle Keys (Monroe County), Orange, Osceola, Polk, inland Sarasota, Seminole, and Sumter counties, the governor’s office said.

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A tropical storm warning is in place in the lower Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas in Monroe County and a tropical storm watch has been issued in Citrus, eastern Columbia, Dixie, Franklin, Gadsden, Gilchrist, Hernando, coastal Hillsborough, Jefferson, Liberty, Leon, Levy, coastal Manatee, western Marion, Pasco, Pinellas, Coastal Sarasota, Suwannee, Taylor and Wakulla counties.

The Florida Division of Emergency Management’s State Emergency Operations Center was activated to a Level 1 Tuesday. More than 250 Florida State Guard soldiers and various equipment, including 10 shallow water vessel boat teams and a UH-60 Blackhawk helicopter, are ready to deploy as needed. The Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission is also ready to deploy specialized equipment to respond to flooded areas.

• Related: Evacuations Planned In Sarasota County Ahead Of Storm: Officials

Helene will intensify as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico and is expected to make landfall, most likely in the Florida Panhandle or Big Bend area, as a Category 3 storm with maximum sustained winds of 111 to 129 mph, AccuWeather forecasters said.

There’s a chance that the system could strengthen into a Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 130 to 156 mph while in the Gulf, forecasters added.

"The combination of deep warm water (ocean heat content) and low disruptive breezes (wind shear), should assist in rapid strengthening when over the Gulf of Mexico from Wednesday to Thursday," Bernie Rayno, AccuWeather chief on-air Meteorologist said.

Tropical storm conditions are expected over parts of western Cuba and the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula early Wednesday with hurricane conditions possible, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The system will approach the northeastern Gulf Coast, including parts of Florida, on Thursday, and will likely make landfall that afternoon or evening, the NHC said.

It brings “a significant threat of storm surge, coastal flooding and erosion, heavy rainfall and flash flooding, and damaging winds to the Florida Gulf Coast,” DeSantis’ executive order said.

Water tables and river levels across north and west-central Florida are above normal after Hurricane Debby dropped significant rainfall on the state in August, the order said. “The additional incoming heavy rainfall will likely cause significant riverine flooding for an extended period.”

The heavy rain, flooding and strong wind gusts are also expected to cause widespread power outages because of fallen trees and powerlines, DeSantis said.

DeSantis said the storm is reminiscent of 2018's Hurricane Michael, a Category 5 hurricane that rapidly intensified and caught residents off guard before plowing a destructive path across the western Florida Panhandle. Communities still rebuilding from previous storms could get battered again, DeSantis warned.

“We are going to see significant impacts no matter what happens," DeSantis said Tuesday.

Wherever it makes landfall, storm surge will also be a concern with this system, Denis Phillips, chief meteorologist for ABC Action News, wrote in a Facebook post. “Surge will be an issue for our (Tampa Bay) area even if it DOES stay well offshore. Helene is forecast to be a sizable storm and will push water this way. Yes, if the track is closer, the surge will be higher, but a surge of 5 to 8 feet is possible based on the current track. That is similar to Idalia in many places. It could be significantly higher if the track is closer to our area. It always boils down to ‘hide from the wind, run from the water’. If evacuation orders are issued, please heed them.”

A storm surge of 10 to 15 feet is anticipated near and just east of where the eye makes landfall, which is likely Florida’s Big Bend area, AccuWeather said. At this time, the level of storm surge is most likely in the Big Bend area of Florida. Other parts of the state from the Tampa area to possibly as far west at Pensacola could see a surge of up to 6 feet.

Phillips urges Floridians to watch the storm and be prepared for any last-minute changes to track and intensity.

“I want to believe the science. I want to believe the models. I want to rely on my experience with these things. But I've lived here 35 years, and we all know storms coming in from this angle can be very tricky,” he wrote. “I do NOT want another Ian. Ft. Myers really didn't see it coming because of the late change in track. Let me be clear, I am NOT saying that will happen with us, but I want to be darn sure that you're prepared for whatever comes this way.”

He added, “If the current track is correct, that's 65ish sustained winds along the coast and much less inland. But if that track goes 50-100 miles more to the East, it's a completely different ballgame. Just be prepared, that's all I'm saying. Take it seriously.”

The Associated Press contributed reporting to this story.