Early Spring Unlikely In FL While El Niño Falls Apart: Forecast

FLORIDA — Most of the United States is expected to see an unusually warm spring, according to a new forecast. But that doesn't seem likely for Florida, with the Sunshine State experiencing a cooler, slow start to spring, followed by an active start to the Atlantic hurricane season.

Although the vernal equinox on March 19 is typically observed as the first day of spring, meteorological spring starts on March 1. After a record-mild winter so far in many parts of the country, spring should arrive early much of the country, according to the forecast from The Weather Channel and Atmospheric G2.

"The only spot that might not endure the earlier-than-usual warmth over the next few months is the Southeast coast," the channel said in its latest outlook released Friday.

Here’s the outlook for Florida:

March: Expect below average temperatures for the state in March. Snowbirds lingering in Florida or spring breakers coming for sun may have to deal with temperatures closer to what they would expect at home this year, according to The Weather Channel.

April: Most of Florida will see temperatures slightly below average in April. Temperatures are likely to remain near or slightly below average in the Southeast, from the coastal Carolinas to Georgia and Florida.

May: The cooler temperature trend from Orlando and Tampa Bay south to Miami will continue as spring comes to a close. Temperatures are more likely to be close to average in Florida compared to the first two months of spring, the forecast said.

According to The Weather Channel, the warmest spot relative to May averages is likely to be the upper Midwest to northern New England.

The only areas of the country that aren’t expected to see earlier than normal warmth are areas of the Southeast. In the northern tier of states, spring is expected to be especially warm, while other areas of the country are expected to see above-normal or slightly above-normal temperatures,

A rapidly deteriorating El Niño climate pattern could mean a busier hurricane season and more active severe weather seasons or parts of the central U.S., Todd Crawford, vice president of meteorology at Atmospheric G2, said in a story for The Weather Channel.

“Given the expected rapid transition from El Niño to La Niña, and the increasing global warming trend, it has become difficult to forecast anything but anomalous warmth as we head towards summer,” he said.

Less scientifically, Punxsutawney Phil didn’t see his shadow on Groundhog Day, Feb. 2. According to lore, that meant winter would continue another six weeks, or until about March 15.

• Related: Did Groundhog Punxsutawney Phil See His Shadow?