FL Eyes New Tropical Wave In Atlantic On Heels Of Hurricane Debby

FLORIDA — Just days after Hurricane Debby brought historic rainfalls and flooding to much of Florida, forecasters are already eyeing a new tropical wave in the Atlantic.

The wave, currently several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, the National Hurricane Center said.

It has a 60 percent chance of strengthening into a tropical depression or storm over the next seven days, forecasters said.

If it does develop, it would become Ernesto, the fifth named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.

• Also Read: ‘Highly Active’ Atlantic Hurricane Season Expected As Peak Looms: NOAA

“Any development of the wave should be slow to occur during the next couple of days while it moves westward across the central tropical Atlantic,” according to the NHC. “Afterwards, conditions are expected to become more conducive for development while the wave moves west-northwestward, and a tropical depression could form by early next week while the system approaches the Lesser Antilles.”

From there, the system is forecast to continue moving west-northwest, potentially approaching the Greater Antilles by the middle of next week.

After that, there’s uncertainty about where the system could track next.

It’s a “healthy wave (that) looks like it will develop next week. EARLY model runs trend east of Florida, but (it’s) WAY too early to know for sure,” Denis Phillips, chief meteorologist for ABC Action News, wrote in a Thursday evening Facebook post.

Matt Devitt, meteorologist for WINK, wrote in a Facebook post that the system is likely to develop further and organize better once it gets to the Caribbean. It will likely enter the eastern Caribbean Monday to Thursday, he added.

“While in the Caribbean, we’ll have to see if it impacts land or it could ‘thread the needle’ with the center slipping between the islands over water. Land interaction would cause a temporary hit in intensity for the system,” Devitt wrote.

He’s also not ruling out the potential storm heading toward Florida.

The “current model majority is for the system to curve just east of Florida, but that is NOT a guarantee yet, “ he wrote. “A couple (of) possibilities … still keep Florida into the mix. It hasn't developed yet and models historically can struggle with systems that aren't organized or have a closed low.”