Hurricane Idalia Expected To Be Category 4 By Landfall Wednesday A.M.

Updated at 12:02 a.m. Wednesday

FLORIDA — As a catastrophic storm surge, destructive winds, flooding and widespread power outages loom, Hurricane Idalia is expected to ballon to be an "extremely dangerous" category 4 storm by the time it makes landfall Wednesday morning, forecasters said. That would put its winds at 130 mph or more.

The storm hovered near category 3 hurricane status with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph at midnight. Gov. Ron DeSantis had urged residents in evacuation areas to leave their homes earlier; conditions will be too hazardous to leave Wednesday morning.

“If you choose to stay in an evacuation zone, first responders won’t be able to get to you until after the hurricane has passed,” DeSantis told residents.

Higher gusts are expected as Idalia reaches category 3 strength — which means sustained winds of 111-129 mph. Its winds were steady at 110 mph at 12:05 a.m. ET Wednesday.

DeSantis said 28 counties have issued evacuation orders. The eye wall of the hurricane will arrive onshore about 8 a.m. ET Wednesday.

About a thousand people were spending the night at shelters operated by the city of Tampa, a fire official told CNN Tuesday night.

Sarasota Mayor Kyle Battie told CNN that they had received no calls for emergencies as of 10:30 p.m. “We’ve been preparing for this for quite some time, this is not our first rodeo,” he said.

But, Battie hopes that residents who are new to the area understand how severe the storm could be.

“Please no matter what take these things seriously," he said. "It’s Mother Nature, you never know what will happen.”

If the storm hits at high tide, the storm surge could reach 10 to 15 feet in the Big Bend area, whre landfall is expected to the eastern point of the Panhandle. “It’s going to be very difficult to survive that,” the governor said.

Southwest Florida is already seeing storm surge, he said at a 6 p.m. briefing. “You’re going to see impacts all up and down the west coast of Florida as the night goes on and the wee hours of the morning.”

As of 11 p.m. ET, Idalia was located 125 miles west of Tampa. The storm is still heading north at 18 mph.

"There is the potential for destructive life-threatening winds where the core of Idalia moves onshore in the Big Bend region of Florida, with hurricane conditions expected elsewhere in portions of the hurricane warning area along the Florida Gulf Coast," the NHC said at 11 p.m. "Strong winds will also spread inland across portions of northern Florida and southern Georgia near the track of the center of Idalia where hurricane warnings are in effect."

Late Tuesday night a tornado watch was issued for 22 Florida counties, including the Tampa-St. Pete metro. The watch is in place until 6 a.m. Wednesday.

The National Weather Service said counties in the water include: Alachua, Charlotte, Citrus, Desoto, Dixie, Gilchrist, Hardee, Hernando, Highlands, Hillsborough, Lafayette, Lake, Lee, Levy, Manatee, Marion, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, Sarasota, Sumter and Taylor.

The growing storm spells trouble for those living in Citrus, Levy, Dixie and Taylor counties. National Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan said the NHC has updated its storm surge prediction for those counties.

"There's going to be catastrophic impacts from storm surge with 10 to 15 feet of inundation above ground level from the Aucilla River to Yankeetown," he said. "In addition, we're going to have destructive wave action on top of that that can actually destroy homes and buildings and really make this a place where it's going to be difficult to survive."

Additionally, well to the right of the storm's center, "we're expecting life-threatening storm surge inundation across portions of the Florida west coast with 7 to 11 feet from Yankeetown south to Chassahowitzka Springs, 6 to 9 feet down to the Anclote River (in Pasco County), 4 to 7 feet in the Tampa Bay region, 4 to 7 feet in Tampa Bay and Manatee County, 3 to 5 feet along the Sarasota County coast and 2 to 4 feet in Charlotte and Lee counties — a wide swath of inundation."

Brennan said the biggest threat from hurricane-force winds is from Tampa Bay to Indian Pass in the Panhandle.

"In the eyewall of that hurricane, you're going to see the potential for life-threatening destructive winds, widespread damage, tree damage, structural damage and power lines down," he said.

On top of that troublesome news, Brennan said the core of a major hurricane will be moving onto land Wednesday morning.

"In addition to the storm surge threat, you're going to have potentially a foot of raunfall mixing in with that," Brennan said. "A reminder that water is the hazard that kills almost 90 percent of the people in tropical storms and hurricanes in this country, the combination of storm surge and freshwater flooding is an especially dangerous one."

At his 11 a.m. briefing, DeSantis warned that the area where Idalia will come ashore is heavily wooded, and downed trees will cause widespread power outages. There are already 25,000 linemen in Florida and more expected, possibly up to 40,000 workers from Texas to Maine to restore power.

“We want to just thank everybody who is a part of the power restoration efforts," DeSantis said. "This is not easy work, especially in late August in Florida, it’s gonna be nasty, it’s gonna be hot. The state of Florida appreciates the people coming from out of state. God bless you.”

Tampa International Airport, Sarasota-Bradenton International Airport and St. Pete-Clearwater International Airport closed ahead of the storm. Passengers should check with their airline for individual flight updates.

Busch Gardens in Tampa Bay closed at 3 p.m. Tuesday to give the animal care team time to move the animals indoors and get them settled.. The park plans to remain closed Wednesday and reopen Thursday.

ZooTampa at Lowry Park has also closed to prepare the animals for the storm. The zoo plans to reopen on Thursday.

Adventure Island, owned by Busch Gardens, is closed until Thursday.

And both the Florida Aquarium and Clearwater Marine Aquarium are closed until Thursday.

So far, Walt Disney World in Orlando remains open Tuesday, as are Universal Orlando, SeaWorld Orlando and Legoland in Polk County. All park officials said they are monitoring the weather conditions.

Publix stores in the St. Petersburg and Tampa areas closed early Tuesday, according to the grocer's website. Publix's status page showed most locations in Pinellas, Hillsborough, Sarasota and Citrus counties planned to close at 5 p.m. Tuesday and reopen at 9 a.m. Wednesday.

However, Walmart said corporate officials are watching and waiting.

"We assess the status of our facilities and will continue to operate as long as it is safe to do so," said Walmart in a news release. "We pay close attention and follow local and/or state evacuation mandates."

Other grocery stores haven't indicated if they will close for the hurricane. However, most of the museums contacted by Patch said they will close for the duration of the storm.

MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa said all aircraft have been evacuated or secured in preparation for Hurricane Idalia.

Related:

• Publix Closes Early Tuesday Ahead Of Hurricane Idalia
• Which St. Pete Restaurants Are Open Ahead Of Hurricane Idalia?
• Where To Evacuate With Pets In Tampa Bay Area During Hurricane Idalia
• Hurricane Idalia Essentials: Chocolate, Coffee, Liquor, Board Games
• Hurricane Idalia: Busch Gardens Closed; Disney, Universal Open For Now
• Never Been Through A Florida Hurricane? Here's What You Should Know
• Hurricane Idalia: Advice For Travelers Following Tampa International's Closing

The forecast for winds is:

• 11 a.m Wednesday: 130 mph on the coast
• 11 p.m. Wednesday: 80 mph inland
• 11 a.m. Thursday: 60 mph over water
• 11 p.m. Thursday: 60 mph

With all this ominous news, there's still a fear among government officials that residents, particularly all the new residents who have moved to Florida in the past year, won't heed their warnings.

St. Pete Mayor Ken Welch told CNN: "We have so many new folks in Florida that might not be aware of how unpredictable these storms can be. Our message to folks is if you are in an evacuation area, heed the call to move to higher ground.

"Our saying is run from the water and hide from the wind," Welch added.

Tampa Mayor Jane Castor urged those in the mandatory evacuation zones to get out as soon as possible.

"It's a category 2 hurricane now but when it passed by Tampa Bay, it should be a category 3," she said, adding that she expects Tampa to feel the full force of the winds around 9 p.m. Tuesday.

Related:

• Hurricane Idalia: Army Of First Responders Stands By To Help Residents
• St. Pete-Clearwater Airport Closing As Hurricane Idalia Approaches FL
• Don't Discount 'Wobble' Factor As Idalia Approaches, Says Governor
• Hurricane Idalia: Taking Care Of Business Can Speed Up Reopenings

DeSantis said he's spoken with President Joe Biden and Federal Emergency Management Agency Director Deanne Criswell about potential destruction from Hurricane Idalia, and they've assured him that help is on the way as the storm bears down on Florida.

The governor said 5,500 National Guard members are mobilized, seven search-and urban-rescue team are ready to deploy and members of the Florida Department of Law Enforcement and the Florida Highway Patrol are working 24/7 shifts.

In case of an internet outage, the state is ready to hook up 650 Starlink internet hookups ready to deploy in the hardest-hit areas. DeSantis said these were a godsend following Hurricane Ian when residents had no way to contact worried family members.

While Hurricane Ian holds the record as the costliest hurricane in Florida and the third-costliest hurricane in the United States, DeSantis said there's no way to predict Idalia's impact, although the Big Bend area isn't as heavily populated as the Fort Myers area that was devastated by Ian.

"As we've seen before, hurricanes can wobble in either direction," said DeSantis, noting that Hurricane Ian was originally predicted to strike Tampa Bay but made an unexpected eastward turn and struck south Florida instead, catching thousands of residents and business owners off guard.

He warned residents that this storm could do the same.

Regardless of where Idalia makes landfall, DeSantis isn't sugarcoating the impact.

"There's no way you're going to get through this storm without losing power. I've already spoken with the utility companies and they have their linemen ready to go," he said. "The quicker we can get power back up, the better off everyone will be."

Duke Energy, which supplies electricity to 1.9 million residential, commercial and industrial customers across a 13,000-square-mile service area in Florida, including Hillsborough, Orange, Pinellas, Polk and Brevard counties, has more than 5,000 responders mobilized and ready to move as soon as the hurricane passes, said Ana Gibbs, corporate communications manager for Florida.

Cherie Jacobs, communications director for Tampa Electric, said the company that serves 830,000 customers in west central Florida and Tampa Bay, and has secured thousands of workers from more than 20 states to help restore power after the storm passes.

Approximately 3,000 people, including line crews, tree trimmers and damage assessors, are traveling to Florida to help Tampa Electric restore power from as far away aas Maine, Missouri and Texas. She said many began arriving Tuesday in Central Florida and will remain outside of the storm’s path until it is safe to begin working.

Measuring Hurricane Winds On Saffir-Simpson Scale

Hurricanes are measured 1 to 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. While the scale makes references to wind speed, it’s really concerned with the type of damage that winds at particular speeds will create – in other words, intensity, which is not always a direct link to wind speed.

Category 1

Sustained winds of 74-95 mph. “Very dangerous winds will produce some damage.”A Category 1 hurricane could destroy older mobile homes and damage newer ones and poorly built houses. Well-built homes could have damage to shingles, siding, gutters and soffit panels.

Category 2

Sustained winds of 96-110 mph. “Extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage.”“Substantial risk of injury or death to people, livestock and pets.”
Mobile homes built before 1994 will probably be destroyed, as will some newer ones, and some poorly built homes. Porches and gables of well-built homes could be damaged. Unreinforced masonry walls will collapse. Near total power loss expected.

Category 3

Sustained winds of 111-129 mph. “Devastating damage will occur.” Poorly built frame homes will be wrecked. Unprotected windows will be broken by flying debris. Well-built homes will be damaged, older metal buildings will fail.

Category 4

Sustained winds of 130-156 mph. “Catastrophic damage will occur.”
Well-built homes will lose or suffer damage to most of their roofs and exterior walls. Top floors of apartment buildings will be damaged, and fallen trees and wires will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks or months, and most of the area will be uninhabitable.

Category 5

Sustained winds greater than 157 mph. A high percentage of frame homes will be destroyed with total roof failure and wall collapse. Nearly all trees will be snapped or uprooted. Power outages will last for weeks or months, and most of the area will be uninhabitable.