Hurricane Irma: Tampa Bay Area Hurricane, Storm Surge Warnings In Place

TAMPA, FL — Hurricane Irma grew stronger overnight Friday, regaining a Category 5 status, while continuing on a collision course with Florida. As of early Saturday morning, hurricane and storm surge warnings extended on the west coast of Florida up to the Anclote River. Warnings mean that storm surge and hurricane conditions are likely within the warning area within 36 hours.

By 2 a.m. Saturday, Irma, the beast that tore through the Caribbean, leaving at least 20 people dead in its wake, was packing maximum sustained winds of 160 mph. Irma was located about 275 miles south-southeast of Miami, moving west at 13 mph. (For more hurricane news or local news from Florida, click here to sign up for real-time news alerts and newsletters from Tampa Patch, and click here to find your local Florida Patch. If you have an iPhone, click here to get the free Patch iPhone app.)

Watch: Analysis – Irma's 'Cone Of Uncertainty' Is Massive

On its current projected path, Irma is expected to clear the northern Cuban coastline by Saturday and make landfall in Florida sometime Sunday.

Forecasters say Irma’s hurricane-force winds extend out 70 miles from the center, while tropical storm-force winds reach out 185 miles.

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At the National Weather Service’s Tampa Bay office in Ruskin, forecasters say Irma’s effects are likely to be felt in some parts of the region starting Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the daytime hours Sunday, while hurricane conditions are expected to move in later in the day and into Monday.

"Prepare for life-threatening wind having possible devastating impacts across West Central and Southwest Florida," the weather service wrote in its Saturday morning update on the storm. "Also, prepare for life-threatening surge having possible significant to extensive impacts across the Tampa Bay region and all of southwest Florida."

The rising danger for the Tampa Bay area became a very real possibility on Thursday when the storm shifted its track to the west. The shift wasn't entirely surprising, given the region had been soundly within the hurricane center’s projected cone for days, experts say.

“Even without the wobble (to the west), people needed to remember the (whole) cone,” Jennifer Collins told Patch. The University of South Florida professor teaches at the School of Geosciences and has dedicated her life to studying storms like Irma. “Some people are just focusing on one line instead of the whole cone.”

Collins and her students were out on Thursday, visiting rest stops along Interstate 75 to meet with and interview evacuees. While their focus was scientific, to learn more about factors that influence people to evacuate – or not – Collins found herself concerned about the number of people she encountered who lacked plans on where to go or the tools to do so efficiently.

• See also: ‘Extremes’ Made 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Unique, Researcher

Collins said she ran into people at the Pasco County rest stop who were struggling with paper maps to find their way, those who were unable to use the map apps on their smartphones and, more troubling, “a lot of people who had no idea where they were going to go.”

Collins and her team also encountered a dog that had either been dropped off by an evacuee in desperation or had escaped from its owners. The USF team was able to get rest stop employees to catch up and care for the stray border collie. Collins learned Thursday night that the dog had been taken in by someone as a foster and was in good hands. The silver lining in the cloud was news Collins was happy to pass along.

See also:

• Pasco County Issues Mandatory Evacuation Ahead Of Irma
• Publix Closing Tampa Bay Area Stores Ahead Of Irma
• Tampa, MacDill Issue Mandatory Evacuations Ahead Of Irma
• Pinellas County Issues Mandatory Evacuation Order Ahead Of Irma
• St. Pete Sandbag Supply Runs Out Ahead Of Hurricane Irma
• Manatee County Issues Mandatory Evacuations Ahead Of Irma
• Florida Sheriff Offers ‘Shelter’ To Criminals During Irma
• Polk County Issues Voluntary Evacuation Order As Irma Nears
• Hurricane Irma: Pasco County Opening Shelters
• Where To Find Gas In The Tampa Bay Area: Hurricane Irma Evacuation
• Hurricane Irma: MacDill Evacuating Some Planes
• All Florida Schools, State Offices Ordered To Close As Hurricane Irma Nears
• Polk County Shelters To Open Ahead Of Hurricane Irma
• Hurricane Irma: FDOT Urges Evacuees To Use Real-Time Apps
• Florida Fuel Shortages: Governor Makes Appeal As Hurricane Irma Nears
• Shelters Opening In Manatee County As Hurricane Irma Nears
• Hurricane Irma: Tarpon Springs Announces Closings
• Manatee County Suspends Bus Service Ahead Of Irma
• Hillsborough County Issues Voluntary Evacuation Ahead Of Hurricane Irma
• Hurricane Irma: Voluntary Evacuation Issued For Manatee County
• Hurricane Irma: St. Pete Running Out Of Sandbags
• Sarasota Declares State Of Emergency Ahead Of Hurricane Irma
• Hurricane Irma: Hillsborough Reopens Sandbag Locations

As a researcher studying hurricanes and their impacts on people, Collins said she was struck on Thursday by the number of evacuees she encountered without tangible experience in weathering a storm.

“Many of these people didn’t have any experience with a storm like this or any storm at all,” she said. “Some weren’t even around for Andrew, and this is likely to be far worse. While some remember Matthew as it was more recent, it shouldn’t be compared to this hurricane as it will be far worse as it is much stronger in intensity and size.”

USF Hurricane Research Team Member Michelle Saunders surveys an evacuee traveling with her parrot. Researchers are studying people’s evacuation decisions, led by Jennifer Collins, who just published a study on evacuees of Hurricane Matthew. Photo credit: Emily Cerrito

On Thursday, Florida Gov. Rick Scott warned about Irma’s size. “This thing is bigger than our entire state,” Scott said during a press conference. “Take this thing seriously.” He waived tolls on all highways and told people if they were thinking about leaving to “get out now.”

Graphics courtesy of the National Hurricane Center