Tropical Storm Milton Forms In Gulf; Likely To Become Major Hurricane

Updated, 10:30 p.m. Saturday

FLORIDA — Tropical Depression 14, which formed Saturday morning in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, has become Tropical Storm Milton, the National Hurricane Center said in an afternoon update.

According to NHC forecasters, as of 5 p.m. ET, Milton was located about 245 miles north-northeast of Veracruz, Mexico, and had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. The system was moving northeast at about 3 mph.

Milton is forecast to reach hurricane status Sunday night and could become a major hurricane before bringing "life-threatening conditions" to Florida's west coast, which was ravaged by Hurricane Helene’s brush with the coastline just over a week ago, the agency said.

The National Weather Service has issued flood watches for most of the southern part of the state, from Cedar Key to the Florida Keys on the Gulf side and Daytona Beach to Miami on the Atlantic Ocean side, with heavy rain predicted to begin Sunday in some areas.

Rainfall totals of 5 to 8 inches are predicted with up to 12 inches possible across portions of the Florida peninsula and the Keys through Wedesday night, the service's Tampa Bay officesaid.

"This rainfall will bring the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with minor to moderate river flooding," the service said.

“Life-threatening storm surge and wind impacts” could reach Florida’s west coast starting late Tuesday, NHC said.

While the track and intensity remain uncertain, a system hitting “north of Tampa at this angle of attack is devastating especially given Helene’s scare and debris still waiting for removal,” Jim Cantore with The Weather Channel wrote in a post to X, formerly Twitter on Saturday morning. “It could also very much move south of Tampa too. I advise everyone to wait for NHC guidance as there is still wiggle room, but remember impacts will extend outside the cone and likely impact Helene areas.”

Denis Phillips, chief meteorologist for ABC Action News, wrote in a Facebook post Saturday evening that there was still a large margin of error on where Milton will make landfall.

"This far out, the average margin of error is 150 miles. So, the entire West coast of Florida is still in play for landfall," Phillips said. "Latest track has bumped up intensity 5 mph making Milton a Cat 3 hurricane at landfall."

"You've got to prepare as if where you live will be in that zone," Phillips said, adding "DO NOT underestimate or minimize potential threat with this system."

"Hide from the wind, run from the water," Phillips wrote. "You have THREE days to prepare. Whether you decide to evacuate or hunker down, you have time."

He said the entire area could be under a hurricane watch on Sunday and the coast will be under a storm surge watch. The first tropical storm-force winds won't be felt until Wednesday, Phillips said.

Matt Dink, meteorologist for WINK, wrote in a Facebook post Saturday evening that the "highest current probability for landfall is between Marco Island to Cedar Key, which includes potential tracks through Tampa Bay or Southwest Florida."

But he said the probability of landfall will tighten up over the next day or two, adding the strongest impacts would be felt on the southeast side of the hurricane.

"You've got to prepare as if where you live will be in that zone," Phillips said, adding "DO NOT underestimate or minimize potential threat with this system."

"Hide from the wind, run from the water," Phillips wrote. "You have THREE days to prepare. Whether you decide to evacuate or hunker down, you have time."