New Tropical Systems Possible In Caribbean: Forecasters

FLORIDA — On the heels of two back-to-back hurricanes, Helene and Milton, hitting the state, Floridians are eyeing an area in the Caribbean for possible tropical storm development next week.

Although the National Hurricane Center says there is no chance of tropical development in the Atlantic basin over the next seven days, some forecasters say it’s too soon to let your guard down.

"We suspect there will be another attempt for a tropical depression or tropical storm to brew in the western Caribbean during the middle to the latter part of next week," Bernie Rayno, chief on-air meteorologist for AccuWeather, said, "As a result, we have issued an advanced risk development zone."

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season ends Nov. 30. The next named storm will be called Patty after Hurricane Oscar recently affected Cuba and the Bahamas.

Though water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico cooled a bit and are closer to average temperatures for this time of year, “waters remain quite warm over the Caribbean, and deep ocean warmth over the prime development area of the Atlantic remains well above the historical average,” according to AccuWeather.

Current atmospheric conditions, including sinking air over the Caribbean and Gulf, will inhibit tropical development. But rising air is expected to return to the Caribbean around the end of October and into early November, which could promote the formation of a tropical system, Fox Weather said.

There will also be low wind shear and the return of the large Central American gyre or storm that could promote a new tropical development, meteorologists said. This gyre fueled the development of Helene and Milton, as well as Tropical Storm Nadine.

If a new spot in the Caribbean does form, it’s difficult to know its exact track and intensity at this point, forecasters said. It would depend on where it forms and other atmospheric conditions.

“Bit of ‘buzz’ on potential development in about a week. I certainly wouldn't rule it out, but with upper winds setting up in a more ‘Winter’ pattern, early thoughts would be IF something develops, it probably kicks Northeast. But again, there is absolutely nothing out there right now. No worries,” Denis Phillips, chief meteorologist for ABC Action News, wrote in a Tuesday afternoon Facebook post.

Tropical storms that form at this time of year tend to move into Central America or north-northeast toward Cuba Hispaniola and the Bahamas, AccuWeather said. “However, a track into Florida or the southeastern U.S. mainland is not out of the question at this early juncture.”