New Tropical Wave Could Develop Into Tropical Depression: NHC

FLORIDA — Although there was a lull in tropical activity during much of July and August, the busiest part of hurricane season, which runs through Nov. 30, is about to start.

And there are already signs of activity as a new tropical wave moving across the Atlantic is being monitored for possible development into a tropical depression, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The wave is producing some disorganized showers and thunderstorms as of Thursday morning.

There is a 40 percent chance of it strengthening, the NHC said.

“Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by early next week while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph and approaches the Lesser Antilles,” according to the agency.

From there, the system is forecast to move west-northwest across portions of the eastern Caribbean Sea during the middle part of next week.

AccuWeather’s lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said there’s a moderate risk for the wave to develop.

"Piecing together a strong increase in moisture, lowering wind shear, lowering dust levels and anticipated rising air, there are signs of an uptick in tropical development coming soon for south-central Atlantic and the Caribbean," DaSilva said, "Waters that cooled in the wake of Ernesto in the south-central Atlantic are warming now as well, which is another positive for development."

AccuWeather’s chief on-air meteorologist Bernie Rayno added, "Wind shear may still be a bit too strong until the system travels farther to the west and possibly gets into the Caribbean.”

When it develops will determine its path, AccuWeather forecasters added. "A tropical wave that evolves quickly is more likely to turn northwestward sooner and possibly track near the northern islands of the Caribbean. A system that remains weak may continue westward longer and may get into the central and western Caribbean rather than turn up east of Florida."

Whatever happens, the wave’s development won’t happen until after Labor Day, forecasters said.

In the meantime, here’s the latest holiday weekend forecast for the Tampa Bay area from the National Weather Service:

• Thursday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 3 p.m. Mostly sunny, with a high near 94. Heat index values as high as 105. East southeast wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
• Thursday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 10 p.m. Partly cloudy, with a low around 75. East wind 3 to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
• Friday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms after 2 p.m. Sunny, with a high near 94. Heat index values as high as 105. East wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30 percent.
• Friday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms before 8 p.m. Partly cloudy, with a low around 74. East wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30 percent.
• Saturday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms after 2 p.m. Sunny, with a high near 93. East wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50 percent.
• Saturday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms before 8 p.m. Mostly clear, with a low around 75. East wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30 percent.
• Sunday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 2 p.m. Sunny, with a high near 91. East southeast wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70 percent.
• Sunday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 8 p.m. Partly cloudy, with a low around 75. Light east southeast wind. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent.
• Monday (Labor Day): Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 2 p.m. Mostly sunny, with a high near 93. Southeast wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70 percent.
• Monday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 8 p.m. Partly cloudy, with a low around 76. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent.