Odds Of Tropical Cyclone Development Increase: NHC

FLORIDA — There are enhanced chances of a tropical cyclone developing over the western Caribbean Sea between Sept. 25 and Oct. 1, according to the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center.

It's too soon to determine if the storm system will track toward Florida and what its intensity might be. If it develops, it could become the next named storm, the eighth of the season, Helene.

Though the atmospheric and oceanic conditions are ripe for storm development, there’s no certainty to where and exactly when a tropical cyclone might form, the agency said. The area of potential development covers a broad area stretching across the eastern Pacific, Gulf of Mexico and the western Atlantic.

Forecasters are eyeing a broad area of low pressure, which could form by early next week, over the western and northwestern Caribbean Sea, the National Hurricane Center said. It has a 40 percent chance of development over the next seven days.

After its initial formation, “gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form as the system moves slowly to the north or northwest over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southern Gulf of Mexico through the middle part of next week,” the NHC said.

The potential storm could be spurred by the Central America gyre, which is a broad, but weak, area of low pressure that sometimes forms seasonally in late spring or early fall, according to The Weather Channel. The gyres form as the typical east-to-west wind and moisture flow from the Caribbean to the Eastern Pacific backs up over Central America, allowing moisture to collect and spin.

"Given how warm waters typically are in the region and energy from the Central America gyre, there is the potential for any system that forms over the western Caribbean to the central Gulf to quickly intensify and track into the U.S.," Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather’s lead hurricane expert, said.

Usually at this time of year — from mid to late September — tropical storms or hurricanes generate from tropical waves off the coast of Africa, AccuWeather said.

It’s too soon to know the system’s track and intensity as various models predict a wide range of tracks for the potential development, from the Bahamas to Florida to the northern Gulf coast, forecasters said.

“No changes to thinking. Low pressure probably develops …over the next 4 or 5 days. Models will go back and forth...that's what they do. Don't get hyper-fixated on 1 particular run. It will drive you crazy,” Denis Phillips, chief meteorologist for ABC Action News, wrote in a Facebook post. “Lately, they're trending West. In reality, the entire Gulf is still a possibility. Bottom line, do I think we'll see a hurricane in the Gulf next week? I'd say chances are high. Do I have any educated idea where it will end up? Yes, somewhere in the Gulf. That's all I got right now.”

Fox 13’s Paul Dellegatto wrote in a Facebook post, “Long ways to go on this one, but model trends continue to indicate that an area of low pressure will form in the western Caribbean in about six to seven days. If one does form, it's too early to talk about track and intensity. Obviously, this is a set up that we pay extra close attention to because storms that form in the western Caribbean this time of year often lift north into the Gulf. Have your family hurricane plan in place, as you should, storm or no storm.”