Will Storm Threat Affect FL During Holiday Week: Latest Forecast

FLORIDA — An approaching storm system could complicate conditions at highways and airports in Florida, which are expected to be congested with projections for record travel over Thanksgiving weekend, the busiest travel holiday of the year.

Travel Monday through Friday should be clear in the Tampa and Miami regions, forecasters said. The only possible weather-related hitch is a storm making its way into the Southeast, that are expected to bring thunderstorms to the region. Whether they stay just north of Florida — drenching Atlanta, the Carolinas and Texas — is the big question.

AccuWeather meteorologists warn lightning delays are possible at airports in cities from Houston to Atlanta. There will be the potential from other hazards, as well.

"Thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday across the South can spell trouble for any last-minute travelers as they can be accompanied by flooding downpours, damaging wind gusts and even isolated tornadoes," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Emma Belscher.

The National Weather Service forecast for the Tampa area this week calls for clear skies Monday through Sunday with highs in the upper 70s.

More than 4.5 million Floridians are forecast to travel 50 miles or more for the holiday - an all-time high for Thanksgiving and nearly 112,000 more travelers than last year, AAA said in a recent news release.

Nationally, Thanksgiving travel numbers are also expected to hit new records with about 80 million people traveling more than 50 miles or more over the Thanksgiving holiday period, AAA said.

This year, AAA expanded the Nov. 26 to Dec. 2 travel period by an additional two days to better capture the flow of holiday travelers. Thanksgiving is on Thursday, Nov. 28.

This year, 1.7 million more people are expected to travel for Thanksgiving than in 2023. AAA expects travel to be up across the board, from driving to flying to cruising.

About 72 million people plan to drive. Gas prices are lower this Thanksgiving season compared to 2023, when the national average for regular gas was $3.26 a gallon.

As of Friday, Florida motorists were paying an average of $3.01 for a gallon of regular gas, according to AAA.

Falling oil prices could push the national average below $3 a gallon for the first time since 2021, and that could happen before the travel period starts, AAA said.

When To Avoid Hitting The Road In Florida

The auto club’s transportation data partner, INRIX, suggests staying away from certain metropolitan areas when traffic is the heaviest. Anticipated heavy congestion times are calculated on major routes from Birmingham, Alabama, to Atlanta; Indianapolis to Chicago; Fort Collins, Colorado, to Denver; Grand Rapids, Michigan to Detroit; Galveston, Texas, to Houston; Los Angeles to Bakersfield, California; Eau Claire, Wisconsin, to Minneapolis; New York to the Hamptons; the Poconos to Philadelphia; Portland, Oregon, to Eugene, Oregon; Palm Springs, California, to San Diego; San Francisco to Sacramento, California; Seattle to Ellensburg, Washington; Fort Myers, Florida, to Tampa; and Washington, D.C., to Annapolis, Maryland.

The best and worst times to travel over the holiday period are (all times local):

• Monday, Nov. 25: 1-5 p.m., worst travel time; before 11 a.m. best travel time
• Tuesday, Nov. 26: 1-7 p.m., worst travel time; before 10 a.m., best travel time
• Wednesday, Nov. 27: 1-5 p.m., worst travel time; before 10 a.m., best travel time
• Thursday, Thanksgiving Day, Nov. 28: Minimal traffic impact expected
• Friday, Nov 29: 7-10 a.m., worst travel time; after 1 p.m. best travel time
• Saturday, Nov. 30: 4-8 p.m., worst travel time; before 1 p.m., best travel time
• Sunday, Dec. 1: noon-6 p.m., worst travel time; before 1 p.m., best travel time
• Monday, Dec. 2: 9 a.m.-6 p.m., worst travel time; before 8 a.m. after 7 p.m., best travel times

Flying Out Of Florida?

Air travel is expected to set records this year with about 5.84 million people flying domestically for the holiday, an increase of percent compared to last year and 11 percent over 2019.

People who are flying out of or expecting guests to fly into METRO AIRPORT should prepare for long lines. A separate report, Hopper’s 2024 Thanksgiving Outlook & Busiest Airports, said the busiest day for air travel will be Sunday, Dec. 1 while the least busy day will be Thanksgiving Day, Black Friday on Nov. 29, and Tuesday, Dec. 3.

Orlando International Airport ranks as one of the busiest in the country, according to the Hopper’s analysis.

It’s a good idea to check a flight-tracking service such as FlightAware to see if flights are running on time before leaving for the airport.

The forecast also noted a 23 percent increase in international flight bookings, compared to last year, in part because the cost to fly internationally is down 5 percent. On domestic flights, travelers are paying about 3 percent more.

Cruises Are Also Up

Nearly 2.3 million people are expected to travel by other modes of transportation, including buses, cruises, and trains. This category is seeing an increase of almost 9 percent compared to last year and an 18 percent jump over 2019, in large part due to the popularity of cruising.

The demand for cruises has been red-hot post-pandemic, AAA said. Domestic and international cruise bookings are up 20 percent compared to last Thanksgiving.