Thanksgiving Travel Forecast 2022: When Should FL Drivers Hit Road?

FLORIDA — If you’re among the estimated 54.6 million Thanksgiving travelers this year, timing your departure from wherever you may live in Florida might be the difference between sitting in traffic and a relatively hassle-free holiday trip.

The auto club AAA said in its Thanksgiving travel prediction released Tuesday that nearly 49 million Americans will travel by car during the long weekend, which for travel purposes is Wednesday through Sunday, Nov. 23-27. Thanksgiving Day is on Nov. 24.

AAA’s data partner INRIX expects severe congestion in U.S. metro areas — especially around Atlanta, Chicago, New York City and Los Angeles — with some drivers experiencing more than double the amount of time stuck in traffic during peak travel times.

“Travel is still roaring back from the pandemic,” said Debbie Haas, vice president of travel for AAA – The Auto Club Group. “While gas prices and other inflationary pressures weigh on budgets, travel remains a top priority for Americans.”

Thanksgiving is expected to be the busiest travel time in Florida in the past two decades, said AAA.

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AAA forecasts more than 2.9 million Floridians will travel 50 miles or more for Thanksgiving. That's 50,000 (2 percent) more Florida travelers than last year and nearly 22,000 (.74 percent) more than in 2019.

Despite higher gas prices, 89 percent of all Thanksgiving travelers will drive. In Florida, 2.7 million, or 91 percent of travelers, will drive to their holiday destinations, an increase of 28,000 people from last year's holiday.

Pump prices are trending higher this month and could set new record highs for the holiday. In Florida, the highest daily average price for Thanksgiving was set back in 2013 at $3.46 per gallon. On Monday, drivers paid an average price of $3.55 per gallon, said AAA.

"Higher gas prices don't seem to be enough to stop people from traveling to be with family and friends," said AAA spokesman Mark Jenkins. "We've found that when gas prices are high, travelers look to offset the added cost by staying in a less expensive hotel or spending less on shopping and dining out."

If you are hitting the road for the holidays, leave early. Florida travelers should expect much heavier than normal congestion Monday through Wednesday afternoon and early evening. Traffic will be lighter during the morning and late evening hours and on Thanksgiving Day.

Best And Worst Times To Travel

INRIX expects severe congestion in several U.S. metro areas, with some drivers experiencing more than double normal delays.

“Thanksgiving is one of the busiest holidays for road trips, and this year will be no different,” says Bob Pishue, transportation analyst with INRIX. “Although travel times will peak on Wednesday afternoon nationally, travelers should expect much heavier than normal congestion throughout the holiday weekend. Knowing when and where congestion will build can help drivers avoid the stress of sitting in traffic.”

• Nov. 23: Worst travel time is 11 a.m. to 8 p.m. Best travel time is before 8 a.m. and after 8 p.m.
• Nov. 24: Worst travel time is 11 a.m. to 3 p.m. Best travel time is before 11 a.m. and after 6 p.m.
• Nov. 25: Worst travel time is 4 p.m. to 8 p.m. Best travel time is before 11 a.m. and after 8 p.m.
• Nov. 26: Worst travel time is 4 p.m. to 8 p.m. Best travel time is before 2 p.m. and after 8 p.m.
• Nov. 27: Worst travel time is 4 p.m. to 8 p.m. Best travel time is before 11 a.m. and after 8 p.m.

What To Expect At Airports

In addition to congestion on the roads, Thanksgiving travelers are likely to find long lines at the airport too. Nationwide, air travel is up nearly 8 percent from last year, with 4.5 million Americans flying to their Thanksgiving destinations this year.

Although most will travel by car, about 4.5 million Americans plan to fly to their Thanksgiving destinations, an increase of 8 percent — 333,000 more travelers — from last year. Thanksgiving air travel is expected to be within 99 percent of pre-pandemic levels.

It’s a good idea to leave for the airport early. Long lines are likely at TSA checkpoints and, “if possible, avoid checking a bag to allow for more flexibility if flights are delayed, or you need to reschedule,” AAA said.

The Transportation Security Administration thinks air travel will pass last year's totals.

TSA expects to screen 2.5 million passengers at checkpoints nationwide on Wednesday, Nov. 23 and just as many on Sunday, Nov. 27.

In comparison, TSA screened nearly 2.9 million passengers on the Sunday after Thanksgiving 2019. That set the record for TSA's largest single-day passenger volume.

TSA Administrator David Pekoske said his agency is ready for the surge, but he thinks it would be better prepared if it offered higher salaries to entice additional security officers.

“Going forward, making the TSA pay levels equal to other federal agencies is critical to our ability in 2023 to recruit, train, equip and retain a highly skilled and professional workforce on the frontlines of transportation security,” Pekoske said. “It is up to Congress to act on the President’s budget request without delay, enabling TSA to address the current pay gap, which is up to 30% compared with other federal employees.”

The number of people who are traveling by bus or train or taking a cruise is up by 23 percent from last year, reaching 96 percent of the 2019 volume.