Tropical Disturbance Could Develop Into Named Storm: NHC

FLORIDA — With a weakened tropical depression Gordon slowly moving north in the Atlantic, all eyes are on a spot in the Caribbean Sea that could develop into the 2024 hurricane season’s next storm.

A broad area of low pressure could form late this weekend or early next week in the northwest Caribbean, the National Hurricane Center said.

While it has just a 20 percent chance of formation over the next seven days, the system could slowly develop through the middle of next week as it moves north or northwest over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, according to NHC forecasters.

The next named storm, the eighth of the season, would be called Helene.

The potential storm could be spurred by the Central America gyre, which is a broad, but weak, area of low pressure that sometimes forms seasonally in late spring or early fall, according to The Weather Channel. The gyres form as the typical east-to-west wind and moisture flow from the Caribbean to the Eastern Pacific backs up over Central America, allowing moisture to collect and spin.

"Given how warm waters typically are in the region and energy from the Central America gyre, there is the potential for any system that forms over the western Caribbean to the central Gulf to quickly intensify and track into the U.S.," Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather’s lead hurricane expert, said.

Usually at this time of year — from mid to late September — tropical storms or hurricanes generate from tropical waves off the coast of Africa, AccuWeather said.

If this area of low pressure develops, it’s too early to know the potential system’s track, local forecasters said.

“Something to watch for middle to end of next week. General area of low pressure (gyre) is expected to develop in the western Caribbean. Most models are on board with a tropical system forming within a larger spin in the atmosphere,” Fox 13’s Paul Dellegatto wrote in a Tuesday night Facebook post. “There is no storm now. Just the potential of one. If a storm does develop, it could take a number of different paths. The key will likely be the strength and positioning of an east coast trough which may pull the storm north/northeast. The bottom line? We will pay close attention to how things play out during the next several days and will keep you posted.”

Matt Devitt with WINK Weather wrote in a Tuesday morning Facebook post, “Models have been consistent with development, but with it still being early, not on track. The current scope where this could go stretches from the Bahamas, to Florida, to the northern Gulf Coast. The large range is because 1) it hasn't formed yet 2) we're beyond 7 days out. That's why if you see a scary worst-case scenario model runs floating around the internet intentionally shared for clicks, take them with a grain of salt. Let's wait until we get within 7 days of any potential landfall and look for model consistency.”