Tropical Storm Francine Expected To Form Near Gulf: FL Weather

FLORIDA — Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is forecast to become Tropical Storm Francine Monday as it moves near the western Gulf of Mexico coast, according to the National Hurricane Center. The peak of the hurricane season is typically Sept. 10.

Though this system won’t have a direct impact on Florida, there are two systems being eyed in the Atlantic.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is expected to strengthen into a hurricane by the time it reaches the northwestern Gulf coast by mid-week, before landfall, forecasters said.

"As the rainstorm enters into the very warm waters of the Bay of Campeche, we expect this rainstorm to gain organization and wind intensity over the course of this week before making landfall along the southern Gulf Coast,” Isaac Longley, AccuWeather meteorologist, said.

Though the system may encounter some wind shear as it moves into the Gulf, warm waters will allow for it to develop, Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather’s lead hurricane expert, added.

"While the wind shear over the tropical [feature] will increase as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast, near all-time record high sea surface temperatures and ocean heat content could allow for rapid strengthening into a hurricane prior to landfall,” DaSilva said. “We urge anyone with interests along the northern and western Gulf Coast to follow the progress of this rainstorm very closely.”

Tropical storm watches are in effect for northeastern Mexico and southern Texas.

Though the system’s exact track and strength isn’t known, it could bring life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds to parts of the Louisiana and Upper Texas coastlines starting Tuesday night, NHC said. Hurricane and storm surge watches will likely be issued for this region later Monday.

In the meantime, Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is expected to bring heavy rain with the risk of flash flooding along the coast of northeast Mexico, parts of south Texas, southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi into Thursday morning, forecasters said.

Behind this system, two areas in the Atlantic are being eyed for potential development.

An area of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic Monday morning, NHC said. It has a 60 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression through the next seven days.

By mid-week, it’s expected to move west-northwest at about 10 mph.

A trough of low pressure has formed several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. This system is also producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms Monday morning, NHC said.

This area is expected to interact with an approaching tropical wave “in a couple of days,” the agency said. “Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the middle to latter part of this week while the system
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.”

It has a 60 percent chance of strengthening within the next seven days, forecasters said.

Though Potential Tropical Cyclone Six won’t affect Florida, there will still be plenty of wet weather coming to the Sunshine State over the next few days,

“Still tracking showers and storms onshore and off. It's all moving to the East,” Denis Phillips, chief meteorologist for ABC Action News, wrote in a Sunday night Facebook post. “Pattern change tomorrow (Monday) and tons of moisture during the workweek will increase rain chances for much of the week ahead.”

Much of Florida, especially the Tampa Bay area, have seen significant rainfall already this summer.

“This year, and especially this summer, has been very wet across parts of West Central and Southwest Florida with some locations near the coast like Tampa, Sarasota-Bradenton, Venice, and Fort Myers already exceeding what normally falls during an entire year,” the National Weather Service’s Tampa office posted to X, formerly Twitter.

Tampa has seen 59.17 inches of rain this year through Saturday, while its normal annual rainfall is 49.48 inches, the agency said.

Meanwhile, the Sarasota-Bradenton area has had 60.43 inches of rain so far this year and its normal yearly rainfall is 49.05 inches.

Here’s the latest Tampa Bay-area forecast for this week from the National Weather Service:

• Monday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms between 1 and 5 p.m., then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5 p.m. Partly sunny, with a high near 90. Heat index values as high as 101. Light and variable wind becoming north northwest around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
• Monday Night: Showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 10 p.m. Low around 75. East northeast wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80 percent. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
• Tuesday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 p.m. High near 89. Heat index values as high as 98. East northeast wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80 percent. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
• Tuesday Night: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 8 p.m., then scattered showers and thunderstorms between 8 p.m. and 2 a.m. Low around 75. East wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80 percent.
• Wednesday: Isolated showers and thunderstorms between 8 a.m. and 2 p.m., then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 p.m. Partly sunny, with a high near 89. East wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70 percent.
• Wednesday Night: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8 p.m., then scattered showers and thunderstorms between 8 p.m. and 2 a.m. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75. East wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent.
• Thursday: Isolated showers and thunderstorms between 8 a.m. and 2 p.m., then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 p.m. Partly sunny, with a high near 90. East southeast wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70 percent.
• Thursday Night: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8 p.m., then isolated showers and thunderstorms between 8 p.m. and 2 a.m. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 76. East southeast wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent.
• Friday: Isolated showers and thunderstorms between 8 a.m. and 2 p.m, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 p.m. Partly sunny, with a high near 90. Light and variable wind becoming west southwest 5 to 7 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent.
• Friday Night: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8 p.m, then isolated showers and thunderstorms between 8 p.m. and 2 a.m. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 76. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent.