Helene Could Be Category 4 Hurricane At FL Landfall: Forecasters

Updated: 6:33 p.m., Monday

FLORIDA — A system churning through the western Caribbean Sea could strengthen into a Category 4 hurricane before making landfall in northern Florida Thursday afternoon, forecasters said.

The system has the potential to bring 160-mph wind gusts, maximum sustained winds of 130 to 156 mph, and up to 24 inches of rain to the hardest hit areas, AccuWeather reported.

"The system is expected to intensify into a major hurricane before it approaches the northeastern Gulf Coast on Thursday, the National Hurricane Center said.

The Tampa Bay area could see 3 to 6 feet of storm surge, while 10 to 15 feet of storm surge is expected in the area where the storm makes landfall, which will likely be the Panhandle or the Big Bend area, the agency said.

“The storm’s wind field is forecast to be rather large compared to recent storms we’ve gone through. This would bring quite a bit of surge to our coast, maybe higher than Idalia or Debby. Any shifts east will mean a greater surge threat,” Denis Phillips, chief meteorologist for ABC Action News, wrote in a Facebook post.

The system “will be a significant threat to Florida” by Thursday as it moves northeast, Phillips wrote. “Bottom line, chances are extremely high Florida will see a hurricane Thursday. Impacts on the (Tampa) Bay Area will start as early as Wednesday night."

“Everyone along the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region needs to be prepared for hurricane impacts,” Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather’s lead hurricane expert, said.

The system, which is forecast to become the eighth named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, is expected to intensify as it moves north into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Storm surge and hurricane watches will likely be issued for parts of northern Florida Monday night or Tuesday morning, NHC said.

As it moves into the Gulf, “models suggest upper level winds could spread apart over Helene, which is favorable for strengthening, instead of shearing and tilting Helene's circulation,” according to the Weather Channel. “For those reasons, Helene could reach at least Category 3 intensity in the eastern Gulf of Mexico before landfall.”

It will develop into near hurricane strength Tuesday night, bringing tropical storm conditions, including heavy rains, flooding, and mudslides, to parts of western Cuba and the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, the National Hurricane Center said.

Floridians can expect similar, if not worse, conditions by the time it makes landfall, forecasters said.

“The potential for life-threatening storm surge and damaging hurricane-force winds along the coast of the Florida Panhandle and the Florida west coast is increasing,” the agency added.

The system has the potential to be the strongest hurricane landfall the U.S. has seen so far this season, DaSilva said.

“The good news is that Helene will be moving quickly across the Gulf as it gets picked up by a trough,” Fox 13’s Paul Dellegatto wrote in a Facebook post. “This will hopefully keep rainfall totals lower than what we experienced during Debby. Some storm surge problems are likely and this will be addressed once we have more confidence in the track. There will be no weather problems Tuesday. Rain will increase late Wednesday with the worst weather Thursday.”

Still, heavy rains are expected along and east of its predicted track — which will likely affect Florida’s west coast, Weather Channel forecasters said. The heaviest rain is expected Thursday into Friday in parts of the Southeast, though some heavy band rains could arrive as early as Wednesday.