Tropical Storm Melissa Forms In Atlantic: See FL Impact

Updated: Tuesday, 1:17 p.m.

Tropical Storm Melissa formed Tuesday as a tropical wave moving through the Caribbean Sea slowed down and strengthened, the National Hurricane Center said, with forecasters watching to see if the storm coalesces and proves a threat to coastal Florida.

Experts are also eyeing three additional tropical waves that are moving west across the Atlantic behind it, although none are expected to develop, AccuWeather said.

Melissa, which is the 13th named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, boasts maximum sustained winds of 50 mph on Tuesday afternoon, the NHC said.

A hurricane watch has been issued for the southern coast and Tiburon peninsula of Haiti, the agency said. Meanwhile, a tropical storm watch is in place for Jamaica.

While the storm’s exact track isn’t set of stone, forecasters think it will steer clear of Florida.

“The trend has been our friend, with almost all models keeping Melissa east of the state. I do have a small amount that show the possibility, but at the present time, it has a better chance of not hitting Florida than hitting Florida,” Matt Devitt with WINK Weather wrote in a social media post.

A coming cold front would keep the storm away from the Sunshine State, experts said.

According to Devitt, “A possible blocker for Florida could be a cold front sweeping by around Halloween to pick up the system, but the TIMING of that front will be a big factor.”

South Florida has a medium risk of tropical rain and winds from Oct. 27 to 30, according to the AccuWeather forecast. The rest of Florida is at a low risk of being impacted by the storm.

The U.S. Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate the system later on Tuesday.

“Due to favorable conditions, the storm is expected to intensify ... as it slows down and begins to turn north late this week. It is possible that this rainstorm could undergo rapid intensification as it sits over the warm waters of the Caribbean,” Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather’s lead hurricane expert, said.

Melissa is expected to bring heavy rains and gusty winds to parts of Aruba, Bonaire and Curaçao over the next day or two, according to forecasters, the NHC said.

“As the storm moves northward, significant flooding and strong winds will be possible in Jamaica, Cuba and Hispaniola,” DaSilva said. “The storm could also drift farther west before making a northward turn. Interests in the Caribbean and Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of this storm, as a shift in track can bring impacts farther west.”

Puerto Rico could also see heavy rain and flooding, strong winds, and rough surf later this week, according to the NHC.

"There is still a big question on whether the storm will move inland or sit for days. It looks like the NHC is leaning more toward the Euro and Google DeepMind solution and drifting Melissa West at the end of the period instead of moving it across the islands," Denis Phillips, chief meteorologist for Tampa Bay 28, wrote in a social media post.

Jonathan Porter, AccuWeather’s chief meteorologist, is especially concerned about “the potential for a life-threatening, catastrophic flooding disaster” in the mountainous areas of Cuba, Haiti and the Dominican Republic if the storm turns north and stalls.

“These communities are especially vulnerable to flooding, as seen in major flooding disasters in this area, including Hurricane Flora in 1963, which tragically claimed over 7,000 lives. More recently, in May 2004, devastating floods occurred across Hispaniola when nearly 20 inches of rain fell. While not from a tropical storm or hurricane, this is yet another example of the flood risk in the Caribbean,” Porter said.

These areas could see 8 to 16 inches of rain from the storm with localized amounts up to 30 inches, AccuWeather forecasters said.

“Most models eventually bring [the storm] into the area between the Dominican and Cuba later this week. GFS is a bit more East and faster, but the exception is… the Euro. It's much more West and stalls it out for days. A front will eventually pick Melissa up and move her NE, but when does that happen? The Euro is historically the best model on Earth,” Phillips wrote in an earlier post. “None of the ensemble runs bring Melissa into the Gulf at this point. Trips to the DR will be dicey."

He added, "Still lots of question marks on the eventual track but no changes to the impacts on Florida at this time. No models currently bring Melissa to Florida, but as always, we will watch for changes. Storms that crawl, or stall, can be EXTREMELY fickle and challenging to predict."