Hurricane Nicole Could Have Devastating Impact On Florida's Coast: NHC

Updated: 6:30 p.m.

FLORIDA — Nicole is now a Category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph with higher gusts.

The National Hurricane Center declared Nicole a hurricane around 6 p.m. Wednesday when the storm made landfall on Grand Bahama Island, producing deadly storm surge and hurricane-force winds on the island that's still recovering from the devastating blow Hurricane Dorian dealt in 2020.

Landfall is expected to occur on the east coast of Florida in the area of Stuart, Port St. Lucie and Fort Pierce sometime between the middle of the night and early Thursday morning, according to AccuWeather.

National Hurricane Center Acting Deputy Director Michael Brennan didn't soft-pedal the potential impact of Hurricane Nicole.

Brennan said, while Hurricane Nicole doesn't have the strength of Hurricane Ian, it's a huge storm extending 460 miles from the eye. That means it will impact a much greater area than Hurricane Ian, which was concentrated in a four-county area when it made landfall.

Located just under 105 miles east of West Palm Beach, residents along Florida's Atlantic coast were already experiencing strong wind gusts on Wednesday, which will intensify as the hurricane makes landfall, Brennan said.

Hurricane Nicole will also potentially carry a devastating storm surge of 3 to 6 feet, with some areas experiencing higher levels. Brennan said storm surge will extend hundreds of miles along the coast into Georgia.

Brennan said conditions could be much worse during Nicole than Ian, because of Nicole's direct strike from the east and the full moon related to high tides, known as king tides. Between the high tides and storm surge caused by Nicole's hurricane-force winds, the east coast could be pounded by surf for an extended period, destroying buildings and roads.

According to AccuWeather, Hurricane Nicole could also intensify when it hits the warmer water just off Florida's coast, known as the Gulf Stream.

"In coastal areas, especially from the Space Coast of Florida through the Carolinas, tropical-storm-force wind gusts can occur for 36-48 hours straight," AccuWeather Director of Forecasting Operations Dan DePodwin said. "This is a longer duration than typical tropical systems."

The lengthy period of impacts "will take a toll," he said.

With Hurricane Ian's destruction in September still fresh in the minds of Floridians, emergency management officials have declared mandatory evacuations for Southeast Florida and are hopeful that residents will heed the warning.

The most current list of mandatory and voluntary evacuations can be found here, with information being updated in real time by the Florida Division of Emergency Management.

In a situation reminiscent of Hurricane Ian, there are more than 60,000 residents living on the barrier islands of Palm Beach County who would be risking their lives if they don't evacuate. In the aftermath of Hurricane Ian, which devastated the barrier islands of Pine, Sanibel and Captiva islands off Fort Myers, 130 people were declared dead as a direct result of the hurricane.

On Tuesday night while the nation was engrossed in midterm election results, President Joe Biden declared a state of emergency in Florida and ordered Department of Homeland Security and Federal Emergency Management Agency disaster relief assistance in the counties of Alachua, Bradford, Brevard, Broward, Charlotte, Citrus, Clay, Collier, Desoto, Dixie, Duval, Flagler, Gilchrist, Glades, Hardee, Hendry, Hernando, Highlands, Hillsborough, Indian River, Jefferson, Lake, Lee, Levy, Manatee, Marion, Martin, Miami-Dade, Nassau, Okeechobee, Orange, Osceola, Palm Beach, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, Putnam, Sarasota, Seminole, St. Johns, St. Lucie, Sumter, Taylor, Volusia, and Wakulla and the Miccosukee Tribe of Indians of Florida and the Seminole Tribe of Florida.

Once it makes landfall, Nicole is expected to make a turn toward the northwest. The storm's center is forecast to move across central and northern Florida and then head north-northeast into southern Georgia Thursday night and across the Carolinas Friday night.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will also cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide:

• North Palm Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound including the St. Johns River to the Fuller Warren Bridge — 3 to 5 feet.
• Altamaha Sound to the South Santee River in South Carolina — 2 to 4 feet.
• St. Johns River south of the Fuller Warren Bridge to Georgetown, Florida — 2 to 4 feet.
• Hallandale Beach to North Palm Beach — 2 to 4 feet.
• Anclote River to Indian Pass on the west coast — 2 to 4 feet.
• Englewood to the Anclote River including Tampa Bay — 1 to 3 feet.
• North of Ocean Reef to Hallandale Beach including Biscayne Bay— 1 to 2 feet.

Floridians can also expect 3 to 5 inches of rain with localized areas getting as much as 8 inches.

Flash and urban flooding will be likely, along with possible on the St. Johns River across the Florida Peninsula Wednesday into Thursday.

A few tornadoes are possible this Wednesday evening across eastern Florida, southeastern Georgia and southern South Carolina.

Large swells on the northeast Florida coast are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.

In anticipation of the storm, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency for 34 Florida counties on Monday.

The storm developed over a month after Hurricane Ian slammed into the Fort Myers area on Sept. 28, killing 130 people in the state, causing billions in damage, and devastating the barrier islands of Sanibel, Pine and Captiva.

Nicole is the 14th named storm of the 2022 Atlantic season, which ends at the end of November.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, if Nicole hits Florida as a hurricane as predicted, it will be the first November hurricane to hit the United States in 37 years.

The last hurricane to make landfall in November was Hurricane Kate, which struck the Florida panhandle on Nov. 21, 1985, as a Category 2 hurricane.

Related stories:

• Nicole Hurricane Watch In Effect, 34 FL Counties In Emergency Status
• Hurricane Season 2022 Predicted To Be 'Above Normal': NOAA
• 2022 Hurricane Names List Released For Atlantic Season
• Tropical Storm Nicole Causing Cancelations Before FL Landfall

Forecasters at the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center said in their annual prediction for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, which began June 1 and continues through Nov. 30, that the season should be active.

According to this year's forecast, the ongoing La Niña, in addition to above-average ocean temperatures, means there's a 65 percent chance the 2022 hurricane season will be above normal. For the 2022 season, forecasters are predicting 14 to 21 named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher. Of those, anywhere from six to 10 of the storms could become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or higher.

This year's season could also spawn anywhere from three to six major hurricanes rated a category 3 or higher, forecasters said.