Tropical Storm Sara Likely In 2 Days: Possible FL Path

FLORIDA — Tropical Storm Sara “could form at any time” in the Caribbean Sea, Denis Phillips, chief meteorologist for ABC Action News, wrote in a Wednesday morning Facebook post.

Florida, already devastated by Hurricanes Debby, Helene and Milton this season, should keep a watchful eye on the tropical disturbance, which could impact the Sunshine State’s western coast by Nov. 20, Fox Weather said.

Storms that form this late in the hurricane season, which officially ends Nov. 30, tend to steer north toward Florida, the forecast said.

Invest 99L, a broad area of low pressure over the central Caribbean that is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday, has a 90 percent chance of strengthening into a tropical depression or storm over the next two days, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Heavy rains are expected over Jamaica on Wednesday and Thursday. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later Wednesday.

The system will intensify as it slowly moves into the western Caribbean over the next couple of days, NHC forecasters said. By early next week, it’s expected to turn slowly northwest.

There are several possible tracks and intensities for the system with some computer models showing it slowly heading north, “threading the needle between Mexico and Cuba, so a powerful hurricane emerges into the Gulf,” Fox said. “On the other hand, many possible forecasts take the system over or near Central America or Cuba, including over Mexico's Yucatán Peninsula. Those predictions generally show a weaker storm in the Gulf of Mexico.”

If the system maintains its core and structure, if it were to hit land before entering the Gulf, “there is plenty of warm water” in the southern Gulf that would allow “it to reorganize and strengthen before it reaches Florida, if it heads that way,” Fox meteorologists said. “Seawater in the northern half of the Gulf is much cooler.”

Florida will likely bear the brunt of the system, according to Fox forecasters.

“Unfortunately, the weather pattern is forecast to resemble what we often see in October when hurricanes can form in the Caribbean and arc north toward Florida,” they said. “A high-pressure center near the Bahamas will steer likely-Sara to the north or northwest over the weekend and into early next week. Then a sharp dip in the jet stream will scoop up the storm and sling it toward Florida around Tuesday, according to a number of the computer forecasts that we monitor.”

They added, “The fact that so many of the variety of computer forecast models are indicating a threat to Florida is concerning, but things can change.”

Where it makes landfall in Florida will also affect its strength when it hits.

“How strong it gets hinges on how long it stays over the Yucatan and how much shear it is facing,” Phillips wrote. “The odds of a Florida landfall are increasing, but where in Florida is still very much in doubt. A track to South Florida would likely be stronger than one to Central or North Florida.”