Tropical System Could Develop In Caribbean Sea: NHC

FLORIDA — A broad area of low pressure is being eyed for tropical storm development in the southwestern Caribbean Sea “in a few days,” the National Hurricane Center said.

It has a 40 percent chance of strengthening into a tropical depression or storm over the next seven days, forecasters with the agency said. There’s no chance of development within the next 48 hours.

Floridians are watching the area with a wary eye as it comes weeks after back-to-back hurricanes Helene and Milton devastated much of the state.

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season ends Nov. 30. If this area develops, the next named storm of the system is Patty.

Gradual development is possible this week, with a tropical depression potentially forming after Halloween later this week or over the weekend, the NHC said.

This development will happen as the system starts to drift north or northeast over the southwestern and central Caribbean Sea.

"Atmospheric conditions will be very conducive for development in the central Caribbean from late this week into early next week. Very warm water combined with low wind shear can allow for development," Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather’s lead hurricane expert, said.

If the area does develop, it’s too soon to know the system's track and strength, forecasters said.

“Models still all over the place. Some East of Florida, some into the Gulf. Historically, storms in November often go more East, but not always. Still nothing there, but by week's end, there should be,” Denis Phillips, chief meteorologist for ABC Action News, wrote in a Sunday afternoon Facebook post.

Fox 13’s Paul Dellegatto wrote in a Sunday Facebook post, “I think eventually something will develop. Formation will be slow, and if a storm does develop, the most likely track would be east of Florida.”

The Central American gyre or storm, which is generally more active at the start and end of the hurricane season, combined with low wind shear could fuel the system’s development, forecasters said. Low shear means an organizing tropical area doesn’t get torn apart as it develops.

"If there is low wind shear, which we expect, I think we will be getting a tropical depression or storm to form," Bernie Rayno, chief on-air meteorologist for AccuWeather, said.

And while tropical storms that form from the gyre might organize at a slower pace, its development could intensify quickly once it happens, forecasters said.

Whether the area strengthens into a tropical depression or storm, widespread downpours, mudslides and flash floods are expected over much of the Caribbean this week, AccuWeather said.